How do you handled ‘the unsettled’ transitions?

At almost every stage in a shift in the way societies and organisations operate, there comes a period of extreme ‘unsettled-ness’. This period may show itself in the form of the doldrums (where things seem unusually calm but nothing seems to be happening) or in busyness (where there’s lots of activity but nothing seems to be happening). In many cases there will be a call for a re-think of direction, of purpose and of activity. So when should you maintain the course, and when should you take a step back?

The answer to both states of being lies in the starting approach you utilised before commiting to your current source of action. For organisations and for societies, if there has been sufficient and deeply considered thinking about what the future might hold (possibilities) and what you want to achieve (preferabilities) then often the answer is to ‘stay the course’.

For leaders, there is often a need to inform the masses. Let them know what is happening, that the doldrums or the wheels spinning is not unexpected, but that a threshold is approaching beyond which, the ‘new normal’ will emerge and embed itself.

But what if you did not undertake the well considered assessment of the preferred future and the likely issues you will face? If you’re in the doldrums, the action is clear – undertake a challenging assessment of what is possible, what is plausible and what is preferrable and use that assessment to guide you actions. However if you have not undertaken that assessment and yet have a very busy organisation or society where lots of action is present but you are ‘getting no where’ then danger is all around you. Understand this – if you are busy but do NOT know where you are going, about the only thing you can guarantee is happening (in your society or organisation) is that valuable resources are being wasted on a directionless business.

And that can only lead to disaster. As Map makers used to mark on uncharted areas: ‘there be dragons!’ If you are leading a society or an organisation that lacks direction it is iuncumbent upon you to discover a direction of value and importance. Without one you’ll wither and die.

As an example, right now it seems to me that the transition from coal to renewables is underway. But the wobbles and worries are all around us. Simply put (and to paraphrase someone else’s thoughts) ‘the old ways are dying but the new ways aren’t fully here yet’. Which sees many calls for ‘go back to what we’ve always done’ offset by ‘the future is this way!’ About the only thing that is clear to me is this:The old ways won’t get us to where we want to go.

But that doesn’t mean the new ways are an easy straightline path. Far from it. In the energy sector, both in charted and uncharted maps, ‘there be dragons’

Terrorism the Games wild card

Jan 31, 2010

In a recent article in The Age, Clive Williams of Macquarie University’s Centre for Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism suggested that athletes booked in to attend the Commonwealth games in India need to consider a terrorist attack as a potential wildcard. Whilst an interesting perspective, I’d like to suggest that a potential terrorist attack at…

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For Valentines Day, its Tigers all ’round

Jan 10, 2010

If my information is correct, the 14th of February is the start of the New Year and instead of the usual flowers and chocolates, you might be wise to invest in another gift for your heart’s desire Because Feb 14 is the start of the Chinese New Year – the year of the Tiger. So…

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What can we expect in the next decade?

Dec 28, 2009

Had any thoughts yet? I have – plenty and judging from the number of media inquiries it appears lots of other people are also curious to know what might lie ahead in the next year or next decade. I’m putting my thinking hat on so that we can consider what 2010-2019 might hold, the second…

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Copenhagen Consensus is likely – just not the type we want.

Dec 7, 2009

I’m tipping that Consensus will be reached at Copenhagen this week. Alas it will be a consensus for more talking, thinking and commitments to agree to a proposal to set a time for a discussion around more concrete targets. In otherwords, a commitment to not commit. The politicians waver whilst our planet is being poisoned.…

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Counter Mantra to Christmas Credit

Nov 30, 2009

The cycle of consumption rears its head as it has done for quite some time. Consumption is neither good, nor bad, it ‘just is’ and right now the majority of media exposed potential consumers are being lured, enticed and occasionally conned into parting with their hard earned money to satisfy needs and whims. Some consumers…

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What kids can teach us about Goal Directed futures

Nov 16, 2009

Our son has just celebrated his fifth birthday and although we don’t make a huge fuss about milestones (the kids get a party every second year), there’s no doubt that he is learning about desired future outcomes and goals. I doubt he is different from most kids in his ability to spot something and declare…

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How Will You Prove You Are Who You Say You Are?

Oct 21, 2009

Here’s a little something I’d like you to think about. Are you really who you say you are? And, how do I know that I can trust you? Identity Theft is one of the most debilitating crimes a person can suffer for it strips away the very core of your own belief system and that…

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Can GM food rescue the planet’s appetite for Food?a

Oct 15, 2009

‘World – we have a problem’ (apologies to astronaut James Lovell). We are killing ourselves with food and it’s happening at both ends of the continuum – millions starve each day whilst a gluttony caused obesity epidemic is killing others off in different ways. We have a growing global population requiring sustenance, whilst Climate Change…

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2009 September rainfall – still ‘above average’?

Sep 30, 2009

Anyone looking at the final rainfall figures for Melbourne’s rainfall might be heartened by the news that the final result was about 10mm above the September average. Compared to last year’s disastrous result where we had about 12mm, it was over 50mm better. But I wonder if the final result, and the current ‘average’ isn’t…

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Marcus Barber at ANTOR discusses the future of travel

Sep 23, 2009

Strategic Futurist Marcus Barber discussed the future of travel at the ANTOR session at The American Club in Sydney, NSW on the 24th of September. Along with Angela Smith from Roy Morgan Research, Martin Kelly from Travel Trends and Gail Rehbein from the Australian Centre for Corporate Social Responsibility Marcus proposed some of the emerging…

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