Terrorism the Games wild card
In a recent article in The Age, Clive Williams of Macquarie University’s Centre for Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism suggested that athletes booked in to attend the Commonwealth games in India need to consider a terrorist attack as a potential wildcard. Whilst an interesting perspective, I’d like to suggest that a potential terrorist attack at the Commonwealth Games does not fit the true criteria of a ‘Wildcard’ event. In the true sense of Wildcard events, a terrorist attack on the games seems far more likely than not likely.
John Petersen of The Arlington Institute in the United States provides perhaps the clearest or most widely adopted definition of a Wildcard event: ‘A low probability, high impact event that would severely disrupt the human condition’.
In other words, the event would be a major disruption BUT (and here’s the thing about Wildcards) the probability of the event occuring is extremely small.
Which is why I differ from Clive Williams’ assessment. The track record in the dusty part of Asia suggests that interpreting a terrorist attack on athletes in India as a Wildcard (i.e ‘highly unlikely), downgrades significantly the potential of such an event. Rather, it is more likely that the signals we can see emerging on the subcontinent suggest that a Cascading Discontinuity Set (CDS) is the likely outcome – a series of smaller, ongoing events that lead to a Wildcard like outcome – severely impacting the human condition. The recent pattern in and around India would upgrade a terrorist attack during or on the games significantly.
And athletes really do need to consider the potential – just doing so understanding that the possible terrorist event fits more in the ‘likely’ than ‘highly unlikely’ camp. Sad but true
If you followed my numerous posts over the years you know I like jumping in early on new products or services – not all have been successful, especially on Kickstarter and Indiegogo, but you roll the dice sometimes and see what happens. Over the years Looking Up Feeling Good was an early community investor in…
Read More >In the 1760s Josiah Wedgwood changed forever the nature of workplaces. He expanded his pottery business and constructed a new large scale factory that required two critical elements: a) Systemisation of processes to ensure consistent high-quality outcomes b) Skilled workers on site The systemisation required experimentation, observation, trials, failures and recording of data – what…
Read More >We’re delighted to announce that Neuro-Psychologist Dr. Kim Hazendonk of Positive Brain has accepted our offer to join our elite speaker’s group. We’re looking forward to bringing her to more groups across Australasia as she discusses effective workplaces, positive mind management, and managing busy lives. If you have a need for an engaging and passionate…
Read More >I flag my bias towards the need for a vastly improved approach to managing staff in the work environments. V A S T L Y improved. I’m still surprised at how clunky, disorganised or naive some senior managers are when it comes to that part of the business that considers ‘people’. And rather than cover…
Read More >An interesting public workshop in Perth in the first week of October introducing a varied group to the Organisational Evolution model. The Org-Ev is the model I developed for the start up of The Australian Strategic Planning Institute in conjunction with Steven Bowman. Given the diversity of the group, there were a number of surprises…
Read More >A note for those of you in Perth that there are just 4 spaces left for the Introduction to the Organisational Evolution Model workshop at Adina Apartments in Perth. The Org Ev model has been designed to enhance Strategic Planning and decision making and this introductory workshop is aimed at those looking to attend the…
Read More >Later this month I’ll be facilitating a scenario session looking at the potential impact of a long standing heatwave event for the City of Greater Dandenong here in Australia. Heatwaves kill more people than any other weather event. By a long way. Importantly they also have a ‘fat tail’ with physical impairments to individuals often…
Read More >Looking Up Feeling Good will be running an workshop on the Organisational Evolution Model in Perth. The Org-Ev model has been used by a wide number of agencies across almost all industry sectors, and was originally developed for the Australian Strategic Planning Institute. The workshop is limited to 25 people and will take place at…
Read More >Looking Up Feeling Good are delighted to be associated with the Victorian over 55 2s at the National Masters Championship coming up in Perth in a few month’s time across September and October. We wish all players well
Read More >If you’re involved with setting policy, allocating funding, designing products or services and delivering on them, then one book you simply must have read is the absolutely astounding ‘Invisible Women’ by Caroline Criado Perez. What Perez has done with this book is ALL OF THE RESEARCH you need to have available to you when you…
Read More >