Copenhagen Consensus is likely – just not the type we want.

I’m tipping that Consensus will be reached at Copenhagen this week. Alas it will be a consensus for more talking, thinking and commitments to agree to a proposal to set a time for a discussion around more concrete targets. In otherwords, a commitment to not commit. The politicians waver whilst our planet is being poisoned. Copenhagen will stall because the framing of the issues does not allow success to be created. What is missing are a couple of ideas to balance the ledger and here’s what they are:

1) The Oxygen Credits System.

This is an idea I first presented at a UNESCO conference in Austria in early 2005. During my presentation I indicated that the Carbon Credits systems were just a permission slip for (mainly 1st world) countries to keep polluting. At the same time, developed nations want to improve their societies yet most of them need to rely on natural assets like minerals and timber to do so. The Oxygen Credits System is a counter balance to the polluting credits system and it would work by developed nations paying developing nations NOT to cut down their forests. The well to do countries would pay the developing countries to continue to be the lungs of the planet, which allows the developing nations a chance to earn an income to help improve their societies, whilst the earth retains some fresh air producing capacity.

2) The Sustainability Import tax

Initially I suggested this in a paper I wrote on the subject of water in 2003 (available on this website for free – see ‘A Drop in the Ocean…’. Back then it was titled the ‘Non Kyoto Signatory Import tax’ and called for a 20% tax on imports of goods from countries who were non Kyoto signatories. The French picked up that idea and ran with – the then Australian Goverment attacked it. What the Sustainability Imports tax would do is allow countries who commit and action carbon reduction targets, to place a trade impost on goods from countries who are not taking serious action at reducing carbon emissions. In otherwords, countries that claim it’s ‘too expensive to take action’, would see their manufacturing and service industries hit with a tax at such a level that it would make better economic sense for their Governments to take serious action.

This idea would also see the emergence of a trading block among the countries who commit to carbon reduction targets. They’d form a Sustainability Trade Cartel, whilst closing off their markets or imposing high costs on those who are trying to get away with doing nothing.

I have strong hopes for Copenhagen consensus of the type we need. The history of our species suggests that is very unlikely. We respond well to disasters after they have happened – we tend not to stave off the disaster before it strikes. A global population of around 5 Billion (and all of the pain that would be required for that outcome to occur) would seem to be the kind of disaster that might jump us out of our lethargy. We are a smart species but we are yet to become ‘wise’ and for that ignorance (or arrogance), many will suffer untold (and uneccessary) lives of misery.

Terrorism the Games wild card

Jan 31, 2010

In a recent article in The Age, Clive Williams of Macquarie University’s Centre for Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism suggested that athletes booked in to attend the Commonwealth games in India need to consider a terrorist attack as a potential wildcard. Whilst an interesting perspective, I’d like to suggest that a potential terrorist attack at…

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For Valentines Day, its Tigers all ’round

Jan 10, 2010

If my information is correct, the 14th of February is the start of the New Year and instead of the usual flowers and chocolates, you might be wise to invest in another gift for your heart’s desire Because Feb 14 is the start of the Chinese New Year – the year of the Tiger. So…

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What can we expect in the next decade?

Dec 28, 2009

Had any thoughts yet? I have – plenty and judging from the number of media inquiries it appears lots of other people are also curious to know what might lie ahead in the next year or next decade. I’m putting my thinking hat on so that we can consider what 2010-2019 might hold, the second…

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Copenhagen Consensus is likely – just not the type we want.

Dec 7, 2009

I’m tipping that Consensus will be reached at Copenhagen this week. Alas it will be a consensus for more talking, thinking and commitments to agree to a proposal to set a time for a discussion around more concrete targets. In otherwords, a commitment to not commit. The politicians waver whilst our planet is being poisoned.…

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Counter Mantra to Christmas Credit

Nov 30, 2009

The cycle of consumption rears its head as it has done for quite some time. Consumption is neither good, nor bad, it ‘just is’ and right now the majority of media exposed potential consumers are being lured, enticed and occasionally conned into parting with their hard earned money to satisfy needs and whims. Some consumers…

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What kids can teach us about Goal Directed futures

Nov 16, 2009

Our son has just celebrated his fifth birthday and although we don’t make a huge fuss about milestones (the kids get a party every second year), there’s no doubt that he is learning about desired future outcomes and goals. I doubt he is different from most kids in his ability to spot something and declare…

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How Will You Prove You Are Who You Say You Are?

Oct 21, 2009

Here’s a little something I’d like you to think about. Are you really who you say you are? And, how do I know that I can trust you? Identity Theft is one of the most debilitating crimes a person can suffer for it strips away the very core of your own belief system and that…

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Can GM food rescue the planet’s appetite for Food?a

Oct 15, 2009

‘World – we have a problem’ (apologies to astronaut James Lovell). We are killing ourselves with food and it’s happening at both ends of the continuum – millions starve each day whilst a gluttony caused obesity epidemic is killing others off in different ways. We have a growing global population requiring sustenance, whilst Climate Change…

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2009 September rainfall – still ‘above average’?

Sep 30, 2009

Anyone looking at the final rainfall figures for Melbourne’s rainfall might be heartened by the news that the final result was about 10mm above the September average. Compared to last year’s disastrous result where we had about 12mm, it was over 50mm better. But I wonder if the final result, and the current ‘average’ isn’t…

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Marcus Barber at ANTOR discusses the future of travel

Sep 23, 2009

Strategic Futurist Marcus Barber discussed the future of travel at the ANTOR session at The American Club in Sydney, NSW on the 24th of September. Along with Angela Smith from Roy Morgan Research, Martin Kelly from Travel Trends and Gail Rehbein from the Australian Centre for Corporate Social Responsibility Marcus proposed some of the emerging…

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