A Fork in the Road for the National Party

Life is full of interesting and not so interesting choices. Some seemingly mundane or innocuous choices turn out to be life makers (and breakers). Occasionally the noisy intensive choices turn out to be little more than a passing zephyr carrying dust. The National Party in Australia have just been presented with a ‘Fork in The Road’ moment. Tony Windsor’s decision to run in the Seat of New England against the incumbent National Leader Barnaby Joyce. The ‘Fork’ looks like this:

Should the National Party

a) Invest significant party resources trying save the Deputy Prime Minister from losing his seat? or

b) Provide the resources across all party members to maximise their chances of winning their own seats?

The Nationals will be unable to do both. Tony Windsor, the previous member for the seat retired due to health issues, which have from all accounts, now been put on a stable platform. To say he was popular in the seat is reasonable given that his first preference votes across the previous Federal Elections in 2004, 2007 and 2010 were +57%; +61% and +61%. Which means Tony Windsor has pulling power within his home electorate. He also has pulling power outside the electorate.

And here’s why the Fork in the Road is such a sharp one. It is likely that Tony Windsor will garner significant funding and campaign support from way beyond his electorate. His social media and local support will be high. If the National Party believe that a standard local campaign will be enough to get the Deputy PM over the line against Tony Windsor, they’d be deluding themselves. They know it. BUT, if they choose to focus on a ‘Save the Barnaby’ approach they will need to divert already stretched resources from OTHER electorate campaigns. In other words, run the risk of under-campaigning in a number of National held seats to save one seat.

I’d suggest it will be a pretty nervous time in the National Party right now. There will be a list of seats which the National Party will target for ‘minimal support’. To do so risks raising the ire of a strong and proud Agricultural sector support base who may just go with a protest vote on a seat by seat basis if the locals get a clue that they’re being taken for granted. I’d doubt any protest vote would be big enough to unseat too many National MP’s, but it may well be big enough to continue to undermine the funding support given to the Natonal Party through the electoral laws that pay per vote received above the 3% level.

The National’s Fork in the Road has them weighing up trying to save their Deputy PM or supporting the rest of their elected members. A continued dwindling of votes sees their funding base for the future eroded further and could well see them fall further, quicker. Do they sacrifice the Deputy PM to save their future? Fork in the Road

Delving into Heatwave Scenarios

Sep 12, 2023

Later this month I’ll be facilitating a scenario session looking at the potential impact of a long standing heatwave event for the City of Greater Dandenong here in Australia. Heatwaves kill more people than any other weather event. By a long way. Importantly they also have a ‘fat tail’ with physical impairments to individuals often…

Read More >

Introduction to the Organisational Evolution Model workshop in Perth

Sep 9, 2023

Looking Up Feeling Good will be running an workshop on the Organisational Evolution Model in Perth. The Org-Ev model has been used by a wide number of agencies across almost all industry sectors, and was originally developed for the Australian Strategic Planning Institute. The workshop is limited to 25 people and will take place at…

Read More >

Sponsoring Vic 55 2s Master’s Hockey

Aug 21, 2023

Looking Up Feeling Good are delighted to be associated with the Victorian over 55 2s at the National Masters Championship coming up in Perth in a few month’s time across September and October. We wish all players well

Read More >

Why You Need to Read ‘Invisible Women’ Now

Aug 20, 2023

If you’re involved with setting policy, allocating funding, designing products or services and delivering on them, then one book you simply must have read is the absolutely astounding ‘Invisible Women’ by Caroline Criado Perez. What Perez has done with this book is ALL OF THE RESEARCH you need to have available to you when you…

Read More >

Preparing for Heat Waves In a World Primed to Cook

Aug 12, 2023

Are we there yet? Have people finally cottoned on to the idea that maybe, things aren’t going so well for the planet and our place in it? Storms, up; floods, up; fires, up; droughts, up; people being displaced by climate events, up.  The signals are all around us. And yet, as a species we struggle…

Read More >

Strategic Impact of Long Term Decision Making

Jul 18, 2023

One of the most challenges aspects for owners of businesses, and also for Boards charged with running businesses, is how to allow for the impact of a decision to unfold over time.  Many listed company Boards will be delaying with a CEO on a limited tenure. The Board will have set expectations for performance and…

Read More >

Emerging Risks for Australian LGAs

Jun 8, 2023

Local Governments in Australia face an emerging risk space that many seem unaware of. Brought on by rising costs, especially in business premises rentals, compliance needs and registration costs, research we’ve identified as part of work with a Local Government client is indicating a significant increase in businesses popping up in residential areas. What seems…

Read More >

Getting Over it Being Over, Not Over

Oct 27, 2022

It’s been a rather hectic few months here at Looking Up Feeling Good in between getting a complete site rebuild, multiple interstate travel commitments and assisting an assortment of clients trying to deal with one rather interesting challenge – what to do when we’re supposed to be done and dusted with a pandemic, yet we…

Read More >

High Risk Play for Australian Retailers Opening in a Covid19 Constrained Environment

Oct 11, 2021

Interesting emerging dynamic about to land on the shop fronts of Australian retailers that pose serious risks to their staff. And few retailers are ready   With moderate level of vaccinations targets achieved, the NSW Government has decided to open up from a #Covid19 lockdown. It does so, relying on compliance enforcement to be undertaken by…

Read More >

How Main Stream Media Fomented the Latest Victorian #Covid19 Outbreak

Sep 30, 2021

There’s a lot not to like about the latest spike in Victoria’s #Covid19 numbers. And the most culpable are mainstream media companies who created the social response The latest spike in #Covid19 infections can be directly attributed to Channel 7, Channel 9 and the ABC with lesser blame attributed to Channel 10 and SBS. In…

Read More >