Terrorism the Games wild card
In a recent article in The Age, Clive Williams of Macquarie University’s Centre for Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism suggested that athletes booked in to attend the Commonwealth games in India need to consider a terrorist attack as a potential wildcard. Whilst an interesting perspective, I’d like to suggest that a potential terrorist attack at the Commonwealth Games does not fit the true criteria of a ‘Wildcard’ event. In the true sense of Wildcard events, a terrorist attack on the games seems far more likely than not likely.
John Petersen of The Arlington Institute in the United States provides perhaps the clearest or most widely adopted definition of a Wildcard event: ‘A low probability, high impact event that would severely disrupt the human condition’.
In other words, the event would be a major disruption BUT (and here’s the thing about Wildcards) the probability of the event occuring is extremely small.
Which is why I differ from Clive Williams’ assessment. The track record in the dusty part of Asia suggests that interpreting a terrorist attack on athletes in India as a Wildcard (i.e ‘highly unlikely), downgrades significantly the potential of such an event. Rather, it is more likely that the signals we can see emerging on the subcontinent suggest that a Cascading Discontinuity Set (CDS) is the likely outcome – a series of smaller, ongoing events that lead to a Wildcard like outcome – severely impacting the human condition. The recent pattern in and around India would upgrade a terrorist attack during or on the games significantly.
And athletes really do need to consider the potential – just doing so understanding that the possible terrorist event fits more in the ‘likely’ than ‘highly unlikely’ camp. Sad but true
Great to see some quality collaboration between the City of Casey and City of Greater Dandenong aimed at addressing or tackling Social Issues and importantly bridging the divide between ‘our area’ and ‘their area’ artificial boundaries. Well done to both Councils Here’s the oveview of what they’re doing. This one looks to be an…
Read More >Most people who’ve been involved in planning and strategy development will have heard of VUCA – Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous. Emerging out of the US War College in 1987, it’s come to be more widely used by consultancies aiming to at least ‘sound smart’. But that’s not the main problem with its usage Instead…
Read More >In short – ‘No’. In days of yore manufacturing data meant jobs being done, employed people being paid, sales being made. But with robotics and off-shoring in many parts of Australian manufacturing, it’s no longer the value indicator it once was. In the US it is an even less reliable indicator because in the…
Read More >I’ve writen a fair bit over the years about the need to move futures thinking out of a theoretical approach and into a more applied model. Recently I’ve come off a 6 month project working with the Asian Productivity Organisation, an entity that brings together 20 member countries and their core government policy…
Read More >Every where we look we are being given clear signs of the blatant stupidity and arguably outright criminality of a toxic system of decision making. The Menindee Lakes and Darling River disaster is one example A couple of years ago I was invited to speak at a Private Equity conference at a lovely resort…
Read More >Every year I aim to identify what I think a major focus of the upcoming year will be and in that light I’m declaring 2019 the International Year of the Cooperative. I’m prompted by a multitude of signals that my daily research has uncovered, many of which will be familiar to you – Cost of…
Read More >Here we are with the last posting of the year looking at the potential for wide ranging strategy for a country like the United States. Arguably the United States is undergoing its own version of #Brexit though without the vote of the people. Instead the dictatorial nature of what I see as an incompetent strategic…
Read More >I’m reluctant to make predictions but am getting a few calls so: My tip is on a March 2019 election – the 9th or 16th But that will be an attempt to protect the existing NSW Government hoping that voters will have sufficiently vented. That said though, it also required a Federal Minoroty Government to…
Read More >The Asian Productivity Organisation has shifted gears from being a centre for member countries to talk about productivity, to one that now wants to upskills its member countries. We’ve just completed the first chunk of helping National Productivity secretariats to ready their staff for a more proactive, future facing approach to their Country’s development …
Read More >The question is, ‘how does the thinking inside this document stack up?’ Turns out, pretty good. What we spotted and what problems we said we’d have to watch out for, are just about spot on When it was discovered that the then Prime Minister Kevin Rudd was going to hold the Australia 2020 Summit,…
Read More >