Is Mainstream media a reliable guide to the 2010 Australian Federal Election?
If you’ve been following any of the mainstream media election coverage here in Australia (stuff in the usual papers, radio and TV programs) you’ve no doubt got a good understanding of what is going to happen on election day. The mainstream media synopsis thus far is that a) Julia Gillard got off to a good start; b) Tony Abbott has established himself and that c) it seems likely that the coalition will be elected to run the country. Unless you’ve been looking at other mainstream media which says that a) Julia Gillard got off to a good start; b) Tony Abbott came flying up to and then past Julia Gillard and then c) Julia Gillard edged her way back in front but that it is still likely for her to lose the election. So where does that leave our understanding? I’m reminded of a similar series of events leading up to the Victorian State Government election about 8 years ago…
In almost every major paper and on almost every TV current affairs program the same thing was being said – Jeff Kennett would be returned to power, the only question was whether he would increase his majority. Every newspaper poll published said the same thing. All of the media and political experts said the same thing. And then something unusual happened. He wasn’t
So how reliable is mainstream media? To look at why the ‘experts’ got it so badly wrong you need to consider where they get their stories from – each other.
That is no insignificant fact. One journalist gets a hint of a story, runs with it and all others jump on board – right now any information is viable and any possible story is viable, hence this bruhaha over the ‘not Kevin leaks’ story that ran for a while. Most media outlets were running the story just in case it was true. So if the experts get their information from each other (and that includes the Party Pollsters who should know better), and they were wrong when the Kennett Government was ejected in Victoria, what are the odds that we might be witnessing a similar process now and what can you do about it?
For starters you need to find different information and you need to go where the experts are NOT going. That means you need to talk to people in the street, your neighbours, friends, anyone who isn’t an expert and find out what they think.
Here’s what I’ve discovered: The Boat People issue is of almost no consequence. The failure to act on Climate Change was appalling. People are 50/50 on this mining tax thing – on one hand they kind of bought the idea that maybe it wasn’t such a good idea and on the other hand they are mighty concerned that the Mining Companies could dictate to our Government. The Greens finally sound like they have a few more idea than they have in the past, especially when it comes to business and maybe this is their year.
So who do you count on? Counter Instinctive behaviour tells me that when all of the experts are saying the same thing based on the same sources, the risk of being wrong increases. I’m listening elsewhere. On a personal note, may we get the Government we deserve
In this chat with Vicki Kerrigan on radio ABC Darwin we discuss the future of sex. This is the first of potentially three conversations where we look at the increasing reach of technology way beyond current online match making sites, the social pressures driving the use of technology as well as the use of technology…
Read More >There’s been a bit of discussion in recent months about a softening housing market around Australia but I wonder how much of it is more indicative of unrealistic expectations on behalf of sellers? In futures work we think in terms of Assumptions and Expectations and aim to test our understanding and so I offer this…
Read More >Unfortunately it looks like my main email address has been hijacked and has been used to send out a series of spam emails. I’d like to apologise to anyone who has received some junk email purporting to come from ‘desiredfutures’ with a series of html links asking you to go and have a look. You…
Read More >Given the amount of plastic swimming in our oceans and rivers and the volume littering our land, the NT Government is aiming to introduce compulsory returns legislation on soft-drink bottles (as happens in South Australia), something that has apparently raised the ire of bottler, Coca Cola. Although they’ve recently backed away from their initial statement…
Read More >Deciphering the hype from reality with regard to drug use can be a challenge for most of us. Professor David Nutt in the UK has given me permission to post a link to the paper he has co-authored with Ruth Weissenborn that looks at the reality of a comparison of harm caused by two common…
Read More >Vicki Kerrigan and I finished off our discussion about the Future of Clothing on ABC Darwin yesterday. We discussed invisibility style cloaks, singlets that monitor your heart rate and stress levels, runners that capture electricity to power your wearable electronics and a few philosophical questions regarding our ability to deal with stress. The file…
Read More >I’ll be talking with Vicki Kerrigan again this afternoon, this time discussing robotics as in-home carers. I’m due on at about 4.45pm Darwin time which is around 5.15pm on the eastern seaboard. You can listen to the audio stream via the link below http://www.abc.net.au/darwin/programs/webcam_radio.htm?ref=listenlive If all things go well, I’ll record the session and…
Read More >I recently attended a session with South East Business Networks where the CEO of Siemens Australasia provided some great ideas as to where Australian Manufacturing was headed and could go, and indeed perhaps needed to go. What I found most useful from Allan Goller’s perspective was the encouragement for businesses to just get on with…
Read More >In this very brief chat with Vicki Kerrigan on ABC Darwin, we kick off the discussion of the future of clothing – not the ‘style’ elements but the functional elements like capturing perspiration to convert for water. You can listen to the audio via the link available here – cue it up about a…
Read More >Marcus Barber will present the case study of his work with Central Highlands Water and their use of Scenarios for Strategy setting at World Water Week in Stockholm this Thursday. You can follow the twitter feed via #watermanagement, #rightfuture or #wwweek This case study looks at the flaws in a reliance on forecasting as the…
Read More >