Is Mainstream media a reliable guide to the 2010 Australian Federal Election?
If you’ve been following any of the mainstream media election coverage here in Australia (stuff in the usual papers, radio and TV programs) you’ve no doubt got a good understanding of what is going to happen on election day. The mainstream media synopsis thus far is that a) Julia Gillard got off to a good start; b) Tony Abbott has established himself and that c) it seems likely that the coalition will be elected to run the country. Unless you’ve been looking at other mainstream media which says that a) Julia Gillard got off to a good start; b) Tony Abbott came flying up to and then past Julia Gillard and then c) Julia Gillard edged her way back in front but that it is still likely for her to lose the election. So where does that leave our understanding? I’m reminded of a similar series of events leading up to the Victorian State Government election about 8 years ago…
In almost every major paper and on almost every TV current affairs program the same thing was being said – Jeff Kennett would be returned to power, the only question was whether he would increase his majority. Every newspaper poll published said the same thing. All of the media and political experts said the same thing. And then something unusual happened. He wasn’t
So how reliable is mainstream media? To look at why the ‘experts’ got it so badly wrong you need to consider where they get their stories from – each other.
That is no insignificant fact. One journalist gets a hint of a story, runs with it and all others jump on board – right now any information is viable and any possible story is viable, hence this bruhaha over the ‘not Kevin leaks’ story that ran for a while. Most media outlets were running the story just in case it was true. So if the experts get their information from each other (and that includes the Party Pollsters who should know better), and they were wrong when the Kennett Government was ejected in Victoria, what are the odds that we might be witnessing a similar process now and what can you do about it?
For starters you need to find different information and you need to go where the experts are NOT going. That means you need to talk to people in the street, your neighbours, friends, anyone who isn’t an expert and find out what they think.
Here’s what I’ve discovered: The Boat People issue is of almost no consequence. The failure to act on Climate Change was appalling. People are 50/50 on this mining tax thing – on one hand they kind of bought the idea that maybe it wasn’t such a good idea and on the other hand they are mighty concerned that the Mining Companies could dictate to our Government. The Greens finally sound like they have a few more idea than they have in the past, especially when it comes to business and maybe this is their year.
So who do you count on? Counter Instinctive behaviour tells me that when all of the experts are saying the same thing based on the same sources, the risk of being wrong increases. I’m listening elsewhere. On a personal note, may we get the Government we deserve
Futurist Marcus Barber will be joining ABC’s Vicki Kerrigan in Darwin for the first of an ongoing discussion about the future this Wednesday. Each week on Wednesday afternoon’s, Vicki and Marcus will discuss the future of something, how we prepare for the future, what the future looks like for some industries and other related futures…
Read More >The panel session at the National Manufacturing Week 2011 went well though with four of us on the panel, time was quite compressed. Some really good thoughts from Phillip Chindamo from AIG, Damon Cantwell from Deloitte and Erol Harvey from Minifab, delightfully chaired by Sandra George from SEBN at the City of Greater Dandenong. Rather…
Read More >On Thursday I’ll be part of the panel that wraps up the National Manufacturing Week 2011 in Melbourne at the Melbourne Convention & Exhibition Centre under the theme of Meeting the challenges of the next generation of manufacturing with a focus on Innovation and Sustainability. It should be an interesting chat as we consider what…
Read More >There’s lots to like about borrowing ideas from other areas especially where those ideas can lead to a significant positive shift. In the link below, Zaid Ali Alsagoff an educational blogging specialist highlights why the Finnish Education system stands as a potential model to embrace. And whilst there are examples of this type of thinking…
Read More >Environmental Scanning (ES) is the process of paying attention to the world in which you operate in order to identify and gain a sense of potential signals of change in how your world is developing. When discussing the idea of ‘change’ we need to be clear – a potential signal of change is likely to…
Read More >When it comes to water management, there’s something of potential value that Victoria could learn from Western Australia’s weather given discussions about new dams If you have almost 60 days straight of above 30 degree days with pretty much no rain, how do you fill the dam? Well you don’t but you’ve put all of…
Read More >The natural disasters we’ve seen recently around the world have shown us much about the communities in which they’ve occurred. The images emerging from Japan, New Zealand and Australia as they’ve faced earthquakes, tsumanis, floods and fires stands on stark contrast to the mainstream media stories that suggests people of the world are not willing…
Read More >Hi everyone – a quick note to let you know that our phones lines have been down for a while now and we are working on getting them fixed. Our apologies for any inconvenience this may have caused you. In the meantime, try using either our 1800 number where you can leave a message only…
Read More >ABC journalist Adam Stephen interviews Marcus Barber on the subject of GM foods and whether they might be more widely embraced as part of the global food requirements The interview (about 3& 1/2 mins) is available in MP3 format here and a link to the shorter web article is here. Some key points –…
Read More >South East Business Networks, the City of Greater Dandenong’s longest running business development program, is an exceptional avenue for learning about issues to do with Manufacturing. This week they provided one ‘out of the box’ with an excellent presentation by Professor Goran Roos, a worldclass expert on Manufacturing and currently South Australia’s Thinker in Residence.…
Read More >