Copenhagen Consensus is likely – just not the type we want.

I’m tipping that Consensus will be reached at Copenhagen this week. Alas it will be a consensus for more talking, thinking and commitments to agree to a proposal to set a time for a discussion around more concrete targets. In otherwords, a commitment to not commit. The politicians waver whilst our planet is being poisoned. Copenhagen will stall because the framing of the issues does not allow success to be created. What is missing are a couple of ideas to balance the ledger and here’s what they are:

1) The Oxygen Credits System.

This is an idea I first presented at a UNESCO conference in Austria in early 2005. During my presentation I indicated that the Carbon Credits systems were just a permission slip for (mainly 1st world) countries to keep polluting. At the same time, developed nations want to improve their societies yet most of them need to rely on natural assets like minerals and timber to do so. The Oxygen Credits System is a counter balance to the polluting credits system and it would work by developed nations paying developing nations NOT to cut down their forests. The well to do countries would pay the developing countries to continue to be the lungs of the planet, which allows the developing nations a chance to earn an income to help improve their societies, whilst the earth retains some fresh air producing capacity.

2) The Sustainability Import tax

Initially I suggested this in a paper I wrote on the subject of water in 2003 (available on this website for free – see ‘A Drop in the Ocean…’. Back then it was titled the ‘Non Kyoto Signatory Import tax’ and called for a 20% tax on imports of goods from countries who were non Kyoto signatories. The French picked up that idea and ran with – the then Australian Goverment attacked it. What the Sustainability Imports tax would do is allow countries who commit and action carbon reduction targets, to place a trade impost on goods from countries who are not taking serious action at reducing carbon emissions. In otherwords, countries that claim it’s ‘too expensive to take action’, would see their manufacturing and service industries hit with a tax at such a level that it would make better economic sense for their Governments to take serious action.

This idea would also see the emergence of a trading block among the countries who commit to carbon reduction targets. They’d form a Sustainability Trade Cartel, whilst closing off their markets or imposing high costs on those who are trying to get away with doing nothing.

I have strong hopes for Copenhagen consensus of the type we need. The history of our species suggests that is very unlikely. We respond well to disasters after they have happened – we tend not to stave off the disaster before it strikes. A global population of around 5 Billion (and all of the pain that would be required for that outcome to occur) would seem to be the kind of disaster that might jump us out of our lethargy. We are a smart species but we are yet to become ‘wise’ and for that ignorance (or arrogance), many will suffer untold (and uneccessary) lives of misery.

Australia’s 2020 Future – the Futurist’s report

Apr 20, 2008

You’d think that given a focus on the future, you’d ask specialists in the future to have some input, and whilst that didn’t occur for the PM’s Summit in Canberra over the weekend, some of Australia’s Futurists had already done the leg work to contribute their thoughts on the future of Australia. That report is…

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Australia’s 2020 Future – the Futurist’s report goes ‘live’ tomorrow

Apr 17, 2008

Some of Australia’s leading futurists gathered in Melbourne in March to provide a specialist Futures approach to addressing the Australia 2020 Summit in Canberra. The outcome of that Summit and the development that subsequently followed has led to the creation of the report ‘Australia 2020 Futurists Summit’ that has worked through each of the ten…

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Marcus Barber to join Jon Faine for the Conversation Hour on ABC Melbourne

Apr 14, 2008

Strategic Futurist Marcus Barber will meet with eminent ABC radio presenter Jon Faine on Wednesday the 16th of April to discuss the outcomes of the Australia 2020 Futurists Summit and Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s Australia 2020 Summit in Canberra on the weekend With a focus on the future of Australia it would be only natural…

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2020 Australia – Futurist’s Report

Mar 3, 2008

A group of leading Australian Futurists gathered over the weekend to consider the 10 core themes set to be tackled at Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s Australia 2020 Summit in Canberra in April. Convened by Strategic Futurist Marcus Barber, the 2020 Australia Futurists Summit utilised some of the advanced facilitation and strategy development techniques as a…

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Australia’s 2020 Future – the Futurist’s report

Feb 25, 2008

As preparations continue for the Prime Minister Rudd’s ‘1000 heads’ ideas summit in Canberra in April, a group of Australia’s leading futurists are gathering in Melbourne this weekend for the ‘Australia 2020 Futurists Summit’. The futurists attending the summit work across Australia, in corporate, not for profit and Government agencies in a variety of fields…

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Are Interest Rate Rises Too Clumsy to Help a Teetering Economy?

Feb 21, 2008

A few thoughts on what steps could be taken to overcome the ‘treat everyone like a nail’ approach that Interest Rate rises seems to do. Check out the idea under the ‘Latest Focus’ section Interest Rate Rises are going to penalise too many people who don’t deserve to lose their homes

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How to Stop Japanese Whaling in its Tracks

Feb 7, 2008

Marcus Barber offers his thoughts on How to Stop Japanese Whaling in its Tracks and suggests that raiding boats won’t do the job. Instead he suggests that the key to negotiating with the Japanese is to have the Japanese people do the work. And to encourage them to do so we must begin to talk…

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Beijing Olympics Opening Ceremony Blanketed by Dust Storm

Jan 17, 2008

If an ‘Inconvenient Truth’ raised the profile of global warming to the general population, it appears that a willingness by political leaders to take appropriate action to mitigate the possible ramifications is still very much lacking. It is such a pity. No one who holds the Global Warming scenario close to heart wants to be…

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Marcus Barber to be Interviewed on 774 ABC

Dec 6, 2007

Strategic Futurist Marcus Barber will join Tim Cox on 774 ABC as part of the conversation hour next week Tim is filling in for Jon Faine whilst he takes a well deserved break and Marcus will join him for the conversation hour kicking off at 11am on Thursday the 13th of December, where they’ll discuss…

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From Foresight Foreplay to Corporate Consummation

Nov 14, 2007

At the AustForesight 2007 Conference, Strategic Futurist Marcus Barber and fellow Futurist Steve Tighe presented their take on what is required to enable futurists to be seen as more relevant to the Corporate world. Drawing on their shared experience as facilitator and client, they detailed the journey of foresight and futures across the past 50…

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