A Fork in the Road for the National Party
Life is full of interesting and not so interesting choices. Some seemingly mundane or innocuous choices turn out to be life makers (and breakers). Occasionally the noisy intensive choices turn out to be little more than a passing zephyr carrying dust. The National Party in Australia have just been presented with a ‘Fork in The Road’ moment. Tony Windsor’s decision to run in the Seat of New England against the incumbent National Leader Barnaby Joyce. The ‘Fork’ looks like this:
Should the National Party
a) Invest significant party resources trying save the Deputy Prime Minister from losing his seat? or
b) Provide the resources across all party members to maximise their chances of winning their own seats?
The Nationals will be unable to do both. Tony Windsor, the previous member for the seat retired due to health issues, which have from all accounts, now been put on a stable platform. To say he was popular in the seat is reasonable given that his first preference votes across the previous Federal Elections in 2004, 2007 and 2010 were +57%; +61% and +61%. Which means Tony Windsor has pulling power within his home electorate. He also has pulling power outside the electorate.
And here’s why the Fork in the Road is such a sharp one. It is likely that Tony Windsor will garner significant funding and campaign support from way beyond his electorate. His social media and local support will be high. If the National Party believe that a standard local campaign will be enough to get the Deputy PM over the line against Tony Windsor, they’d be deluding themselves. They know it. BUT, if they choose to focus on a ‘Save the Barnaby’ approach they will need to divert already stretched resources from OTHER electorate campaigns. In other words, run the risk of under-campaigning in a number of National held seats to save one seat.
I’d suggest it will be a pretty nervous time in the National Party right now. There will be a list of seats which the National Party will target for ‘minimal support’. To do so risks raising the ire of a strong and proud Agricultural sector support base who may just go with a protest vote on a seat by seat basis if the locals get a clue that they’re being taken for granted. I’d doubt any protest vote would be big enough to unseat too many National MP’s, but it may well be big enough to continue to undermine the funding support given to the Natonal Party through the electoral laws that pay per vote received above the 3% level.
The National’s Fork in the Road has them weighing up trying to save their Deputy PM or supporting the rest of their elected members. A continued dwindling of votes sees their funding base for the future eroded further and could well see them fall further, quicker. Do they sacrifice the Deputy PM to save their future? Fork in the Road
The link below will take you to the audio of the discussion I had with Annie Gaffney on ABC Radio Sunshine Coast the day after the Opposition released its Broadband policy. There’s been much discussion about the perceived value or otherwise, and I flag my bias here upfront: As a small business owner likely to…
Read More >In the article I link to below, Diana G Oblinger, the President of EDUCAUSE offers the Higher Ed community some insights such as this one: we’ve moved on from the Information Age and are now in the Connected Age. Such a statement will come as quite a shock for many Higher Education Institutions and policy…
Read More >In case you haven’t heard, technology is making so many jobs redundant, that only the adaptable will survive. And when I say ‘jobs redundant’ I mean across EVERY conceivable industry and level of specialisation. Robotic surgery is now so good that not only can it be done remotely, it can be done without human intervention.…
Read More >Coca Cola, Lion Nathan and Schweppes have successfully challenged the Northern territory’s compulsory container deposit recycling scheme in the Federal Court. The scheme had seen recycling rates jump by 30% in just a few months and was widely applauded by the public as the right thing to do. Despite the overwhelming public support, Coca Cola…
Read More >If you’re looking for an accelerated course in Strategic Planning and Advanced Management techniques in the Philippines in July, then TruEventUs has a two day session coming up on the 4th and 5th of June. Marcus Barber, founder of The Australian Strategic Planning Institute will facilitate this intensive program. For full details You can…
Read More >Without putting too fine a point on it, most of us pay little attention to what we ‘deposit’ in our toilets each time the body needs to exit our bodily waste. And yet with a looming phosphate shortage around the world (along with other useful components) our personal waste streams are worth billions of dollars…
Read More >As co presenter of the ‘Future Matters’ series with the National Geographic Channel back in 2004, I discussed the idea of Rapid Prototyping or 3D Printing. At that stage, 3D printers were like very large office photocopiers and the better ones had starting prices of around $150,000. I stated that in the near future, people…
Read More >In tracking shifts across the world and across industries, the rise of Crowdsourcing continues to unleash some amazing innovations in products and services. Importantly it is exposing the capability gaps that even large organisations have. Simply put, the ‘crowd’ is always going to be bigger than your business or organisation. But to tap that latent…
Read More >Allow me to flag my bias from the outset – I’m tinged green. My shade of green recognises that my actions can contribute to a cleaner or more polluted world and that overall, I’d prefer the cleaner version. There’s a huge amount of data that shows that as a species we haven’t been looking after…
Read More >The burgeoning shift in the manufacturing sector has been coming for a touch over a decade and has, I would suggest, now reached your front gate. A whole confluence of factors that include 3D printing, Crowdsourcing, home engineering and freescale Idea Generation leveraging social funding approaches means that EVERY single aspect of manufacturing as we…
Read More >