The US Economic Yo-Yo
What a ride it has been over the last month as an economically unhinged US ‘strategy’ for US Imperial economic dominance begins to play out.
I’m not an economist so happy to take advice from those who are and the draconian and flawed Trump strategy of Tariffs for all’ seems to be the kind of thing a drunken dullard might use trying to hail a taxi from the local long after closing time. Shout ‘pay me, pay me’ and expect a free ride home
Canada, for reasons one can assume align to their dismissal of becoming a US state, seem to be a core target. Their expansive trade relationship is now in tatters, all trust held by Canada looking as eroded as a steel can in a bath of hydrochloric acid.
Coming from the Futures line then, I ask ‘If that, then what?’ What kinds of things might we expect to happen given this unfolding story of chaos?
Canada has to an extent, already show its hand – it’ll move to other markets. Rather than offer fealty to the drunkard buffoon, expect them to move quickly to establish other trading partners, pathways for economic and social alignment, and ways to secure their own economic status DESPITE the US. Trump’s model is consistent – talk big, make threats, expect the other party to back down and if they don’t, shift narrative as if nothing ever happened and deny it when raised. But he underestimates Canada for they have something Trump can barely comprehend – good, positive, deep and valued relationships with other countries built on shared interests and curiosity.
As we come toward the end of May, it appears that any economic pain Canada may have felt with diminished trade with the US has already been offset by substantial gains into other markets. What those figures might be is a wait and see. In the meantime, once well established trading routes and supply chains between the two countries are gone. It is unlikely they’ll ever return in the same shape as before.
This is a long game. Australia will not be immune and soon or later Trump will need a big win. As the well worn mantra goes – ‘watch this space’
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