The US Economic Yo-Yo

What a ride it has been over the last month as an economically unhinged US ‘strategy’ for US Imperial economic dominance begins to play out.

I’m not an economist so happy to take advice from those who are and the draconian and flawed Trump strategy of Tariffs for all’ seems to be the kind of thing a drunken dullard might use trying to hail a taxi from the local long after closing time. Shout ‘pay me, pay me’ and expect a free ride home

Canada, for reasons one can assume align to their dismissal of becoming a US state, seem to be a core target. Their expansive trade relationship is now in tatters, all trust held by Canada looking as eroded as a steel can in a bath of hydrochloric acid.

Coming from the Futures line then, I ask ‘If that, then what?’  What kinds of things might we expect to happen given this unfolding story of chaos?

Canada has to an extent, already show its hand – it’ll move to other markets. Rather than offer fealty to the drunkard buffoon, expect them to move quickly to establish other trading partners, pathways for economic and social alignment, and ways to secure their own economic status DESPITE the US.  Trump’s model is consistent – talk big, make threats, expect the other party to back down and if they don’t, shift narrative as if nothing ever happened and deny it when raised. But he underestimates Canada for they have something Trump can barely comprehend – good, positive, deep and valued relationships with other countries built on shared interests and curiosity.

As we come toward the end of May, it appears that any economic pain Canada may have felt with diminished trade with the US has already been offset by substantial gains into other markets. What those figures might be is a wait and see. In the meantime, once well established trading routes and supply chains between the two countries are gone. It is unlikely they’ll ever return in the same shape as before.

This is a long game. Australia will not be immune and soon or later Trump will need a big win.  As the well worn mantra goes – ‘watch this space’

Futurist Marcus Barber discusses the Future of Sex (Part Two) on ABC Darwin with Vicki Kerrigan

Nov 10, 2011

The MP3 file below captures part two of our chat looking at the Future of Sex. Picking up on the theme of new technology that popped up towards the end of our first discussion in week one, here we move onto haptics and holographics and the extension of that technology from beyond the bedroom and…

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History as Future – TV Show Who’s Been Sleeping in My House?

Nov 8, 2011

Who’s Been Sleeping In My House? is a new Australian series presented by archaeologist Adam Ford that looks at the stories behind some of our old homes. Adam is the man behind the recent ‘Ned Kelly’ dig among other great archaeology finds here in Australia and the UK. As a futurist I’m always interested in…

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Professional Futurists running their Follow The Sun Futures Program

Oct 25, 2011

The Association of Professional Futures is holding its first Virtual Gathering, following the sun from Europe, across North America and finishing in the Australia pacific zone. It kicks off tomorrow and links to the program and registration (it’s only $45 for guests for a program featuring some of the worlds most prominent futurists)   You…

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Marcus Barber on ABC Darwin – the Future of Sex Part 2

Oct 24, 2011

I join Vicki Kerrigan on ABC Darwin radio where we continue our discussion about the future of sex. We consider three main areas in this session – smart phone applications; remote relationships and the combination of haptics and holographics as one the emerging means by which we’ll maintain physical contact.   You can download the…

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The Future of Sex Part One

Oct 17, 2011

In this chat with Vicki Kerrigan on radio ABC Darwin we discuss the future of sex. This is the first of potentially three conversations where we look at the increasing reach of technology way beyond current online match making sites, the social pressures driving the use of technology as well as the use of technology…

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Soft House Prices or Unrealistic Vendors?

Oct 16, 2011

There’s been a bit of discussion in recent months about a softening housing market around Australia but I wonder how much of it is more indicative of unrealistic expectations on behalf of sellers? In futures work we think in terms of Assumptions and Expectations and aim to test our understanding and so I offer this…

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We’ve Been hit by an email Virus and apologise to everyone impacted

Oct 12, 2011

Unfortunately it looks like my main email address has been hijacked and has been used to send out a series of spam emails. I’d like to apologise to anyone who has received some junk email purporting to come from ‘desiredfutures’ with a series of html links asking you to go and have a look. You…

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The Future of Plastic Bottles

Oct 10, 2011

Given the amount of plastic swimming in our oceans and rivers and the volume littering our land, the NT Government is aiming to introduce compulsory returns legislation on soft-drink bottles (as happens in South Australia), something that has apparently raised the ire of bottler, Coca Cola. Although they’ve recently backed away from their initial statement…

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Is Alcohol or Cannabis more Harmful?

Oct 7, 2011

Deciphering the hype from reality with regard to drug use can be a challenge for most of us. Professor David Nutt in the UK has given me permission to post a link to the paper he has co-authored with Ruth Weissenborn that looks at the reality of a comparison of harm caused by two common…

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The Future of Clothing Part Two

Oct 4, 2011

Vicki Kerrigan and I finished off our discussion about the Future of Clothing on ABC Darwin yesterday. We discussed invisibility style cloaks, singlets that monitor your heart rate and stress levels, runners that capture electricity to power your wearable electronics and a few philosophical questions regarding our ability to deal with stress.   The file…

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