The ever increasing computing power replacing jobs by the thousands
When it comes to ‘anti-technology’ thinking, a term often thrown disparagingly at people is ‘Luddite’. Luddites were indeed anti-tech BUT contrary to modern day thinking, they had a particular dislike for technology that would put people out of work. If technology helped keep people employed or created more jobs they were all for it. Which brings me to current computing technology and in particular, the potential long-tail impacts on cities and towns
A recent Oxford University study looking at computing’s impact on job markets, goes a step further than similar studies. Whereas many others talk about future potential for job replacement as tchnology improves, the Oxford research suggests that almost half of all jobs could ALREADY be replaced. We’ve all heard about software that can in minutes find case law that it takes a phalanx of lawyers to do in hours or days. We know that surgery can be done remotely and is now on the cusp of full robotics without human intervention, and that autonomous vehicles are likely to see truck, bus and taxi drivers released from their roles.
Which makes for some interesting planning conundrums for cities and towns. If half the workforce no longer needs to communte, or is no longer required at all, what happens for transport planning? If computing advances render whole swathes of people redundant, what sort of social support services are needed to deal with the influx of people with time on their hands?
And are we, as Arthur C Clarke summised in his book ‘A View from Serendip’ actually headed to total UNemployment?
City planners, policy makers and more need to begin to take a serious and in-depth look at what it means to have half of all jobs replaced by a computer, and the potential impact that has on their cities and neighbourhoods. It doesn’t look like technology is going away any time soon. What would those Luddites say?
The MP3 file below captures part two of our chat looking at the Future of Sex. Picking up on the theme of new technology that popped up towards the end of our first discussion in week one, here we move onto haptics and holographics and the extension of that technology from beyond the bedroom and…
Read More >Who’s Been Sleeping In My House? is a new Australian series presented by archaeologist Adam Ford that looks at the stories behind some of our old homes. Adam is the man behind the recent ‘Ned Kelly’ dig among other great archaeology finds here in Australia and the UK. As a futurist I’m always interested in…
Read More >The Association of Professional Futures is holding its first Virtual Gathering, following the sun from Europe, across North America and finishing in the Australia pacific zone. It kicks off tomorrow and links to the program and registration (it’s only $45 for guests for a program featuring some of the worlds most prominent futurists) You…
Read More >I join Vicki Kerrigan on ABC Darwin radio where we continue our discussion about the future of sex. We consider three main areas in this session – smart phone applications; remote relationships and the combination of haptics and holographics as one the emerging means by which we’ll maintain physical contact. You can download the…
Read More >In this chat with Vicki Kerrigan on radio ABC Darwin we discuss the future of sex. This is the first of potentially three conversations where we look at the increasing reach of technology way beyond current online match making sites, the social pressures driving the use of technology as well as the use of technology…
Read More >There’s been a bit of discussion in recent months about a softening housing market around Australia but I wonder how much of it is more indicative of unrealistic expectations on behalf of sellers? In futures work we think in terms of Assumptions and Expectations and aim to test our understanding and so I offer this…
Read More >Unfortunately it looks like my main email address has been hijacked and has been used to send out a series of spam emails. I’d like to apologise to anyone who has received some junk email purporting to come from ‘desiredfutures’ with a series of html links asking you to go and have a look. You…
Read More >Given the amount of plastic swimming in our oceans and rivers and the volume littering our land, the NT Government is aiming to introduce compulsory returns legislation on soft-drink bottles (as happens in South Australia), something that has apparently raised the ire of bottler, Coca Cola. Although they’ve recently backed away from their initial statement…
Read More >Deciphering the hype from reality with regard to drug use can be a challenge for most of us. Professor David Nutt in the UK has given me permission to post a link to the paper he has co-authored with Ruth Weissenborn that looks at the reality of a comparison of harm caused by two common…
Read More >Vicki Kerrigan and I finished off our discussion about the Future of Clothing on ABC Darwin yesterday. We discussed invisibility style cloaks, singlets that monitor your heart rate and stress levels, runners that capture electricity to power your wearable electronics and a few philosophical questions regarding our ability to deal with stress. The file…
Read More >