The ever increasing computing power replacing jobs by the thousands
When it comes to ‘anti-technology’ thinking, a term often thrown disparagingly at people is ‘Luddite’. Luddites were indeed anti-tech BUT contrary to modern day thinking, they had a particular dislike for technology that would put people out of work. If technology helped keep people employed or created more jobs they were all for it. Which brings me to current computing technology and in particular, the potential long-tail impacts on cities and towns
A recent Oxford University study looking at computing’s impact on job markets, goes a step further than similar studies. Whereas many others talk about future potential for job replacement as tchnology improves, the Oxford research suggests that almost half of all jobs could ALREADY be replaced. We’ve all heard about software that can in minutes find case law that it takes a phalanx of lawyers to do in hours or days. We know that surgery can be done remotely and is now on the cusp of full robotics without human intervention, and that autonomous vehicles are likely to see truck, bus and taxi drivers released from their roles.
Which makes for some interesting planning conundrums for cities and towns. If half the workforce no longer needs to communte, or is no longer required at all, what happens for transport planning? If computing advances render whole swathes of people redundant, what sort of social support services are needed to deal with the influx of people with time on their hands?
And are we, as Arthur C Clarke summised in his book ‘A View from Serendip’ actually headed to total UNemployment?
City planners, policy makers and more need to begin to take a serious and in-depth look at what it means to have half of all jobs replaced by a computer, and the potential impact that has on their cities and neighbourhoods. It doesn’t look like technology is going away any time soon. What would those Luddites say?
Okay the time has come again where people ask me, as a professional futurist, for my tips for the Melbourne Cup. As always I advise them that my area of expertise does not reside with horse racing so really, I have as much chance as anyone and their own system, of selecting a winner. That…
Read More >ABC Darwin’s Vicki Kerrigan and I chat about the future of dentistry – is it possible to grow you own teeth? Are dentist visits going to become a thing of the past? And in the second of today’s updates, we also chatted about the Future of Parenting – is it time that you needed a…
Read More >Organisations like CleanUp Australia and Take3.org have (along with many others) taken a leading role at identifying and removing waste that has entered our environment. Their efforts are fantastic yet have one clear problem – they rely on volunteers to clean up the mess of others, after the fact – it’s a ‘playing catch-up’ strategy.…
Read More >The Retail sector in Australia is slowing coming to grips with the fact that for the past 50 years, they’ve had a captured market and enormous profit margins. and that now, the times have changed. Whilst many point to the internet as a cause of their woes, others are pointing out the apparent high cost…
Read More >he many people who’ve been through one of The Australian Strategic Planning Institute’s workshops over the past six years, will know how much emphasis is placed on the need to pay attention to things going on around you. In particular as part of the idea of tracking your progress toward your desired future (your Vision).…
Read More >As a Futurist I’m often asked what I think about certain social media tools (and most technology for that matter). My answer is always aligned to the thought that ‘if the technology is working for you, and not against you, it’s probably a good thing. Here then are my thoughts about building up a useful…
Read More >Will alcohol have a legitimate place in societies in the years to come? As we slowly awaken to the horrendous impact of alcohol related harm and it’s social and financial costs, will Australia’s widely held acceptance of alcohol consumption begin to wane? This MP3 of my chat with Vicki Kerrigan on ABC Darwin drew…
Read More >Well as I’ve discovered them! These three questions (and my normal answers) are based on what I get asked consistently when I’m presenting or facilitating a session about Strategic Planning, ‘the future of…’, and how societies might look five, ten or twenty years from now: Question One – ‘What is the most important thing to…
Read More >Every now and again what sounds like a really good idea turns out to be less beneficial than what was hoped for. Strategic Futurist Marcus Barber wonders whether or not the Victorian Government’s ‘4 Minute Shower’ idea is a current example? For those of you that have read my paper ‘A Drop in the Ocean’…
Read More >There’s a lot to like about Mars. For centuries the name given to the Roman God of War (in honour of its blood stained hue) it has given us an opportunity and point of focus to think beyond our own planet. There’s been some vast mythologies about the deep channels (interpreted as canals meant signs…
Read More >