Soft House Prices or Unrealistic Vendors?

There’s been a bit of discussion in recent months about a softening housing market around Australia but I wonder how much of it is more indicative of unrealistic expectations on behalf of sellers? In futures work we think in terms of Assumptions and Expectations and aim to test our understanding and so I offer this isolated example of the housing market in action for you to think about whether ‘softening’ prices are a reality. Around three years ago a two bedroom brick veneer house in Cummins Rd, East Brighton sold for approximately $440,000, which was pretty much market value at the time. The new owners subdivided the land and about a year ago built a three bedroom townhouse of a pretty high standard on the rear of the property. The style of house is likely to be attractive to a more limited market and there’s no outside space to speak of. So what would you say would be a fair price to expect at auction?

Potential bidders were pretty clear. The Real Estate Agent (Buxtons) did a great job at talking the property up and highlighted everything that was good about the property. But I wondered if the agent knew he was flogging a dead horse so to speak because he asked for an opening bid of $800,000 and eventually kicked the auction off with a vendor’s bid of $700,000. When no further bidding emerged he placed another vendor’s bid at $750,000 and the property was passed in.

Now I’m not too sure what pricing strategy the vendor had. I know that the vendor has also done a fair bit of work in the front property in which they live and I wondered if their price was based on not only what they paid for the original property, and what they spent building the subdivision, but also was an attempt to recoup money spent on their own home? But for me, having paid $440,000 three years ago and having spent perhaps another $200,000 or so adding a sub-division property out the back, expecting what is believed to have been a sale price of well over $800,000 seems an example of unrealistic expectations.

Right now entire single block double story dwellings a few years old are selling in the area for about $850,000. Some would say that even in a warm housing market, a realistic and fair price for the new Cummins Rd dwelling out the back is closer to the $600,000 mark. I’m sure you know of similar examples around Australia and beyond. When we consider real estate as an indicator of social and economic health, we need to be careful about placing too much emphasis on auction outcomes, unless we also consider how realistic the expectations for sale prices also are. And that perhaps something for lenders to also consider

Futurist calls 2011: International Year of Solutions

Dec 19, 2010

Reckon it’s time we had a focus on getting things done and so I am declaring 2011 to be the ‘International Year of Solutions’. Seems to me that a lot of talk fests have been gobbling up the neuronal space for a few years now with insufficient ACTION being generated – just lot of promises…

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Customer Service – why the future is BEGGING you to get it right today

Nov 24, 2010

Another stream of consciousness on the customer service theme that I come back to frequently. If you’ve ever received one of those scam emails from say ‘the past Minister of the Immigration and Business Department in Nigeria’ seeking your assistance at repatriating funds for which you’ll be paid a fortune, or those other scams claiming…

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Active TV slowly emerging

Nov 16, 2010

A shift is underway in television in Australia and it has nothing to do with digital versus analogue or the pay versus free shifts. Instead we are finally seeing the promise of TV as a medium of engagement. That promise sees a shift from the passive watching of TV (a ‘push’ approach) to the active…

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Do fairytales come true?

Oct 27, 2010

That will be the question many will be asking leading up to the replay of the AFL Grand Final this Saturday between Collingwood and St Kilda. Regardless of the outcome, the AFL have already had their fairytale come true courtesy of a drawn game which is believed to have handed the AFL a bonus likely…

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A quick plug for Google Chrome

Oct 25, 2010

Being someone who questions the value of technology before climbing on board, I’ve been perhaps a tad slow to check out the Google Chrome web browser. Mistake! Given it’s speed and ease of use, the first couple of days have impressed me greatly and I’m mindful that I don’t have all the working of its…

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What Businesses can learn from Tourism (and vice versa)

Sep 11, 2010

In preparation for work with a couple of clients in the past fortnight I’ve had to throw myself into substantially more ‘tourist’ style activities than I have for quite some time in an attempt to answer the following question: ‘How do we get more people to come here?’ Yes there’s a lot of fun to…

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Why who the next Prime Minister is might be of little importance

Aug 29, 2010

Whilst the counting of votes is over the election is yet to be completed. Right now the discussions continue between the ‘three amigos’ who are clearly maximising their time in the spotlight, and the two leaders of the major parties. And whilst the media is fixated on who ought to be, deserves to be, should…

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May we get the Goverment we both deserve AND need

Aug 20, 2010

If you’ve seen any of the media campaigns for the Australian Federal Election you could have come to the following conclusions: Julia Gillard had a fixation with hand getsures; Tony Abbott had a fixation on Boats; and the Greens had the best Television Commercial not only of this campaign but of any other they’ve had…

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Is Mainstream media a reliable guide to the 2010 Australian Federal Election?

Aug 12, 2010

If you’ve been following any of the mainstream media election coverage here in Australia (stuff in the usual papers, radio and TV programs) you’ve no doubt got a good understanding of what is going to happen on election day. The mainstream media synopsis thus far is that a) Julia Gillard got off to a good…

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‘Us’ or ‘Them’ – how to tell the customer they are irrelevant on your website

Aug 1, 2010

This great little cartoon/graphic says it all and although looking at the subject of Universities, there is much that we can all learn   Here’s the Graphic.  If your website spends all its time talking about you, and no time talking about the customer, how do you think your customers (and prospective customers) feel?  I…

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