Is Manufacturing Output Data a Reliable Indicator of Economic Activity

In short – ‘No’. In days of yore manufacturing data meant jobs being done, employed people being paid, sales being made. But with robotics and off-shoring in many parts of Australian manufacturing, it’s no longer the value indicator it once was.

 

In the US it is an even less reliable indicator because in the last 10 years, even as manufacturing in the US rebounded, the number of jobs did not. In fact, job numbers have declined further as automation has increased substantially. So a down turn in manufacturing data means a poorer result for few people.

This article in The New Daily looks at the reasons why the stock market dropped off the back of, among one thing, flat manufacturing output in the US. But really, should we care – most US manufacturing is headed towards less employees. In short, it’s no longer a value indicator that it once was as a down turn really means less robots at work. In Australia our manufacturing sector continues to bounce along, employing plenty and slowly adding select robotics and automation to fill skill gaps shortages rather than displacing workers (the US approach). And there’s plenty of manufacturers in Australia across a broad array of sectors doing just nicely thankyou. So interpretation of data needs more than a cursory glance

A quick look at the ‘Repeal Day’ concept – almost right

Jan 15, 2014

The Australian Government has announced a ‘Repeal Day’, intended to be used to axe the existence of hundreds of outdated laws. The concept is a good one, though for me, doesn’t quite get the Australian Parliament into a forward looking setting in how it could develop FUTURE legislation. So what could be done instead and…

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2014 – The International Year of Food Security

Dec 30, 2013

Continuing his run of suggesting an annual theme and idea of world focus for the year ahead, Futurist Marcus Barber has declared 2014 to be the International Year of Food Security. ‘The year ahead is going to bring into sharp focus, what has often been seen as an ‘other-world’ problem’ Barber says. ‘For a number…

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Coming up on New Year’s Day – a look ahead to emerging issues

Dec 29, 2013

Yes I know, committing to an early morning chat on ABC Radio on New Year’s Day may to some seem tinged with the ‘what were you thinking?’ bug, but hey, what better time is there than chatting about the future, than at prime New Year’s Resolution time? You’ll be able to listen to the stream…

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How your Company Vision is doing you harm

Nov 26, 2013

The Australian Strategic Planning Institute website has a new article on why Visions, rather than being useful shining lights, end up being ‘ruts’ for organisations.   Counter instinictivley and yet simply put, the never ending nature of some Visions leads to an inaction toward that Vision. Companies and individuals spin their wheels in a quagmire…

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Unlocking the promise of ‘teleworking’

Nov 19, 2013

One of the great things about technology (especially of the instantaneous ‘social’ kind) is the ability to attend a conference without leaving your office. Which is a salient point because yesterday I followed a number of the presentations looking at the idea of tele-working or remote workers, and did so by following the tweets of…

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Keeping your Future, grounded to Reality

Nov 18, 2013

About once a week I get a call from a client or a media group asking if I can tell them what the future will be like. The conversation usually goes something like this – Me: can I ask what you’re trying to discover? Journalist: Oh you know, something really catchy, about how the world…

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The 2013 Melbourne Cup – a Futurist Decides

Nov 13, 2013

Now before any of you rush out and stick your hard earned on anything I say here, please note that a) I’m answering this because I get asked every year and b) My track record is appalling. Still I’ve put a bit of thought into a near term prediction to see who you might like…

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Celebration of Hope fundraiser for Brain Cancer

Oct 17, 2013

Tonight I have the privilege of being the MC for Blackwood 8’s Celebration of Hope Gala Ball at the Manningham Function Centre in Doncaster. Blackwood 8 raise funds to find a cure of Brain Cancer and are strong supporters of Dr. Charlie Teoh’s Cure for Life foundation. With a crowd of around 300 it’s going…

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Marcus Barber’s Presentation from the V21 Digital Conference in Melbourne is available

Oct 2, 2013

‘ve just spent a delightful day learning about digital issues at the v21 Digital Conference at the State Library and my presentation at that conference is now available at the link below. My all too brief summary of presentations is also provided   Sessions have covered Branding, Blogging, case studies, education & health; future of…

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The ever increasing computing power replacing jobs by the thousands

Sep 23, 2013

When it comes to ‘anti-technology’ thinking, a term often thrown disparagingly at people is ‘Luddite’. Luddites were indeed anti-tech BUT contrary to modern day thinking, they had a particular dislike for technology that would put people out of work. If technology helped keep people employed or created more jobs they were all for it. Which…

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