Is Mainstream media a reliable guide to the 2010 Australian Federal Election?
If you’ve been following any of the mainstream media election coverage here in Australia (stuff in the usual papers, radio and TV programs) you’ve no doubt got a good understanding of what is going to happen on election day. The mainstream media synopsis thus far is that a) Julia Gillard got off to a good start; b) Tony Abbott has established himself and that c) it seems likely that the coalition will be elected to run the country. Unless you’ve been looking at other mainstream media which says that a) Julia Gillard got off to a good start; b) Tony Abbott came flying up to and then past Julia Gillard and then c) Julia Gillard edged her way back in front but that it is still likely for her to lose the election. So where does that leave our understanding? I’m reminded of a similar series of events leading up to the Victorian State Government election about 8 years ago…
In almost every major paper and on almost every TV current affairs program the same thing was being said – Jeff Kennett would be returned to power, the only question was whether he would increase his majority. Every newspaper poll published said the same thing. All of the media and political experts said the same thing. And then something unusual happened. He wasn’t
So how reliable is mainstream media? To look at why the ‘experts’ got it so badly wrong you need to consider where they get their stories from – each other.
That is no insignificant fact. One journalist gets a hint of a story, runs with it and all others jump on board – right now any information is viable and any possible story is viable, hence this bruhaha over the ‘not Kevin leaks’ story that ran for a while. Most media outlets were running the story just in case it was true. So if the experts get their information from each other (and that includes the Party Pollsters who should know better), and they were wrong when the Kennett Government was ejected in Victoria, what are the odds that we might be witnessing a similar process now and what can you do about it?
For starters you need to find different information and you need to go where the experts are NOT going. That means you need to talk to people in the street, your neighbours, friends, anyone who isn’t an expert and find out what they think.
Here’s what I’ve discovered: The Boat People issue is of almost no consequence. The failure to act on Climate Change was appalling. People are 50/50 on this mining tax thing – on one hand they kind of bought the idea that maybe it wasn’t such a good idea and on the other hand they are mighty concerned that the Mining Companies could dictate to our Government. The Greens finally sound like they have a few more idea than they have in the past, especially when it comes to business and maybe this is their year.
So who do you count on? Counter Instinctive behaviour tells me that when all of the experts are saying the same thing based on the same sources, the risk of being wrong increases. I’m listening elsewhere. On a personal note, may we get the Government we deserve
Futurists often get asked things like ‘Okay then – who’s going to win the ‘flag’ this year’. In Melbourne Cup time most of my friends ring me asking for a hot tip. Given my consistent poor form at selecting a winner, why they would ask me is anyone’s guess (unless they are working out who…
Read More >Does your organisation suffer what Futurists call ‘Operational Sleepwalking’? That most organisations (and people) willingly sleepwalk their way into their futures is not all that surprising. What is surprising about that however is that those people and those organisations are: * Surprised when something unexpected (and not to their liking) happens and, * Claim they…
Read More >Maree Conway, of ‘University Futures’ has joined the Australian Strategic Planning Institute as a lead facilitator for the Institute’s programs. Maree’s experience in policy development, planning and strategy initiatives provides additional weight to the sessions on offer. TASPI now have three key facilitators that cover critical steps in the Strategic Planning Process – Enhanced Awareness…
Read More >The latest edition of Fast Thinking has hit the streets and includes another tool for those seeking to develop innovation and strategy. Marcus Barber explains how to use, what he calls an ‘iiBubble’, a process that helps capture an idea to see if it has innovation ‘legs’. As one of the tools unique to Barber…
Read More >Looking Up Feeling Good would like to wish the very talented and focused futurist, Sophie Barber a happy birthday today. Sophie’s amazing talent at suggesting the possible future for a positive outcome is a true inspiration and we look forward to many more insights as the complexity of challenges continues to test our understanding, commitment…
Read More >The CoreNet Global Melbourne 2007 Summit incorporated a thought provoking Hypothetical panel discussion on the future of corporate real estate and the drivers for sustainability. With an economic futures framework provided by Melbourne University Professor of Economics Neville Norman who moderated the discussion, the panel included Aggie Aitken, Head of Workplace Development at ANZ; Strategic…
Read More >Among other great articles, the winter 2007 edition of Fast Thinking magazine highlights the ‘8 Factor’ model for effective employee engagement, created by strategic futurist Marcus Barber. Using the model he shows how organisations can develop greater flexibility when it comes to providing incentives as a means for improving productivity and ensuring longevity for staff.…
Read More >Last night the ABC program ‘A Difference of Opinion’ looked at the issues of the housing affordability ciris. The panel provided some quality perspectives as to what was causing the challenge and what kind of actions might need to occur in order to address the issue with Ross Gittins’ early observation that the debate completely…
Read More >Dan Atkins, former manager of Environmental policy at Toyota and now Director of Sustainable Business Practises and Strategic Futurist Marcus Barber will speak at the South East Networks / VicUrban Business Breakfast at the Sandown Racecourse on Wednesday the 27th of June. Both Dan (who’ll discuss how Toyota applies its Environmental Policy in order to…
Read More >Looking Up Feeling Good’s advanced signals reporting service ‘Future Alerts’ is now available as a monthly subscription offering. Designed to provide your organisation with signals indicating potential change, each report comes with analysis of the signals and how they might impact your business. Applying some advanced Environmental Scanning process, including the ‘VSTEEP’ model, you can…
Read More >