Is Mainstream media a reliable guide to the 2010 Australian Federal Election?
If you’ve been following any of the mainstream media election coverage here in Australia (stuff in the usual papers, radio and TV programs) you’ve no doubt got a good understanding of what is going to happen on election day. The mainstream media synopsis thus far is that a) Julia Gillard got off to a good start; b) Tony Abbott has established himself and that c) it seems likely that the coalition will be elected to run the country. Unless you’ve been looking at other mainstream media which says that a) Julia Gillard got off to a good start; b) Tony Abbott came flying up to and then past Julia Gillard and then c) Julia Gillard edged her way back in front but that it is still likely for her to lose the election. So where does that leave our understanding? I’m reminded of a similar series of events leading up to the Victorian State Government election about 8 years ago…
In almost every major paper and on almost every TV current affairs program the same thing was being said – Jeff Kennett would be returned to power, the only question was whether he would increase his majority. Every newspaper poll published said the same thing. All of the media and political experts said the same thing. And then something unusual happened. He wasn’t
So how reliable is mainstream media? To look at why the ‘experts’ got it so badly wrong you need to consider where they get their stories from – each other.
That is no insignificant fact. One journalist gets a hint of a story, runs with it and all others jump on board – right now any information is viable and any possible story is viable, hence this bruhaha over the ‘not Kevin leaks’ story that ran for a while. Most media outlets were running the story just in case it was true. So if the experts get their information from each other (and that includes the Party Pollsters who should know better), and they were wrong when the Kennett Government was ejected in Victoria, what are the odds that we might be witnessing a similar process now and what can you do about it?
For starters you need to find different information and you need to go where the experts are NOT going. That means you need to talk to people in the street, your neighbours, friends, anyone who isn’t an expert and find out what they think.
Here’s what I’ve discovered: The Boat People issue is of almost no consequence. The failure to act on Climate Change was appalling. People are 50/50 on this mining tax thing – on one hand they kind of bought the idea that maybe it wasn’t such a good idea and on the other hand they are mighty concerned that the Mining Companies could dictate to our Government. The Greens finally sound like they have a few more idea than they have in the past, especially when it comes to business and maybe this is their year.
So who do you count on? Counter Instinctive behaviour tells me that when all of the experts are saying the same thing based on the same sources, the risk of being wrong increases. I’m listening elsewhere. On a personal note, may we get the Government we deserve
It is a tad unfortunate that in the past couple of weeks I’ve had to experience the way in which one of the players in the car insurance industry treats its customers. I haven’t lost a single demerit point since well into last century and consider myself a pretty safe driver. So a couple of…
Read More >Marcus Barber has teamed up with Marketing expert Tod O’Reilly to write ‘Recession Proof Marketing – how to survive and thrive in a recession’. The book is due for completion by the end of March, 2009 and pre orders are now being taken for advance copies Tod was the account manager for both the David…
Read More >At the Long Now group run by Stewart Brand, they have regular guest speakers on a whole range of topics. Recently they had Russian Dmitry Orlov who discussed what happened in Russia during the economic crisis in the early 1990’s and what people around the world might need to do to prepare for the current…
Read More >This is Part one with Part two (looking at who will probably better off at this time next year) to come shortly. If you are in a position to sharpen your thinking, catch a breath or use some time to improve your understanding of the ways in which we create our societies, then I have…
Read More >What’s emerging for 2009? What might shape the near term future, what can we do about it and what are some of the indicators suggesting change or otherwise? Strategic Futurist Marcus Barber joined Raphael Epstein and co-host Denise Scott, as part of the panel to answer the questions on the 774 ABC’s conversation hour today……
Read More >Yes you read right – thinking ahead I’m anticipating an amazing 2008. Happy new year to all for when it happens (depending on the calendar you subscribe to) and I look forward to some fun, challenges, stresses and enjoyment for the year ahead. Marcus Barber 🙂 PS – Hope 2007 was a good one
Read More >The Advanced one day Strategic Planning Workshop in Sydney on the 11th of December at Rydges World Square is now fully booked For inquiries about the next series of dates for the 2009 series, keep an eye out on The Australian Strategic Planning Institute website at www.taspi.com.au or contact us via email here
Read More >Every now and again what sounds like a really good idea turns out to be less beneficial than what was hoped for. There’s lots of talk right now about technology solutions and ways in which societies can change the way they use water – there’s conferences and ‘talkfests’ a plenty featuring many of the industry…
Read More >The second annual fund raiser was held in late October and attended by almost 300 people. Marcus Barber offers a brief update: The Blackwood 8 commitee put together a great fund raiser on behalf of the Ludwig Institute for Cancer Research in Melbourne. With a delightful crowd warm up by Greg Champion of the ‘Coodabeen…
Read More >The slides used as part of Marcus Barber’s key note address to the Regional Produce Summit are now available via the link below Held at the Wangaratta Gateway Motel (and the first conference event staged in its very impressively redsigned function room) the conference brought together a range of speakers to discuss culinary tourism,…
Read More >