Is Mainstream media a reliable guide to the 2010 Australian Federal Election?

If you’ve been following any of the mainstream media election coverage here in Australia (stuff in the usual papers, radio and TV programs) you’ve no doubt got a good understanding of what is going to happen on election day. The mainstream media synopsis thus far is that a) Julia Gillard got off to a good start; b) Tony Abbott has established himself and that c) it seems likely that the coalition will be elected to run the country. Unless you’ve been looking at other mainstream media which says that a) Julia Gillard got off to a good start; b) Tony Abbott came flying up to and then past Julia Gillard and then c) Julia Gillard edged her way back in front but that it is still likely for her to lose the election. So where does that leave our understanding? I’m reminded of a similar series of events leading up to the Victorian State Government election about 8 years ago…

In almost every major paper and on almost every TV current affairs program the same thing was being said – Jeff Kennett would be returned to power, the only question was whether he would increase his majority. Every newspaper poll published said the same thing. All of the media and political experts said the same thing. And then something unusual happened. He wasn’t

So how reliable is mainstream media? To look at why the ‘experts’ got it so badly wrong you need to consider where they get their stories from – each other.

That is no insignificant fact. One journalist gets a hint of a story, runs with it and all others jump on board – right now any information is viable and any possible story is viable, hence this bruhaha over the ‘not Kevin leaks’ story that ran for a while. Most media outlets were running the story just in case it was true. So if the experts get their information from each other (and that includes the Party Pollsters who should know better), and they were wrong when the Kennett Government was ejected in Victoria, what are the odds that we might be witnessing a similar process now and what can you do about it?

For starters you need to find different information and you need to go where the experts are NOT going. That means you need to talk to people in the street, your neighbours, friends, anyone who isn’t an expert and find out what they think.

Here’s what I’ve discovered: The Boat People issue is of almost no consequence. The failure to act on Climate Change was appalling. People are 50/50 on this mining tax thing – on one hand they kind of bought the idea that maybe it wasn’t such a good idea and on the other hand they are mighty concerned that the Mining Companies could dictate to our Government. The Greens finally sound like they have a few more idea than they have in the past, especially when it comes to business and maybe this is their year.

So who do you count on? Counter Instinctive behaviour tells me that when all of the experts are saying the same thing based on the same sources, the risk of being wrong increases. I’m listening elsewhere. On a personal note, may we get the Government we deserve

The Future of…

Aug 1, 2012

Most everything. The various papers, presentations, radio interviews, magazine articles, books and newspaper references have been reformatted in alphabetical order for easier access. Click on the ‘Future Of…’ tab and find what you are looking for under the headings listed, with links to each relevant item.   You’ll find the future of Australia, food, technology,…

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The Continued Rise of ‘Enoughness’

Jul 14, 2012

I came up with the term Enoughness in late 2008, and early 2009 as a result of some research I was assessing looking at emerging consumer behaviour. The manufacturing companies I presented to at the South East Business Networks session on Managing a Diverse Workplace discovered, Enoughness was a very different approach to the idea…

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Need a Career Change? Here’s some roles to consider

Jul 9, 2012

Business Insider has a story today of 7 jobs you’ve never heard of and why they’re awesome which is delightfully amusing for two reasons: One – ‘Futurist’ makes the list at number 7; and Two – I’ve been employed in full time futures for over a decade (and part time for about ten years before…

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Our Disappearing World Languages

Jun 25, 2012

In this article on the LifeBoat Foundation’s website, Laurence Baines discusses the loss of languages around the world and the increasing shift toward the major five tongues. From a futures perspective we appreciate that a language often contains within it, a way of knowing that is missing in someone who may have learned to speak…

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Science Fiction writer Ray Bradbury has died aged 91

Jun 6, 2012

Few books (and a subsequent film) influenced my desire for knowledge in the way that Bradbury’s Fahrenheit 451 did. The black and white film adaptation still holds much in my memory almost 30 years later. As a youngster I’d sat up late and seen original The War of the Worlds on TV and a few…

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How Secure is your WiFi Usage?

May 29, 2012

Ah well, you’d be surprised at how easy it is for someone to steal a piece of you! This info-graphic from Veracode explains in more detail some of the actions you can take and things to be aware of when using WiFi   You can go stright to the InfoGraphic and

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The Future of Money

May 7, 2012

Have just spent a few hours discussing the Future of Money, hosted by James Bibby at Microsoft in Sydney and facilitated by Peter Vander Auwera from SWIFT/Innotribe. I’d like to flag that everyone understood that the session was way too short for such a big topic and everyone would agree that we just scratched the…

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Six Emerging Trends in Corporate Sustainability

May 1, 2012

Ernst & Young and GreenBiz have completed a survey of business executives looking at the development of Corporate Sustainability around the world. The report shows that there has been a clear rise in awareness; that employees are a core source driving sustainability actions; that reduction of costs is a core appeal and that return on…

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The Future of War

Apr 23, 2012

On the eve of ANZAC day here in Australia ABC Radio Darwin’s Vicki Kerrigan chats with futurist Marcus Barber on the future of war – what the future triggers of war might be and how war will be fought   Increasing technology or less technology?  Haves versus the have nots?  On a pretty serious topic…

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The Future of Workplace Design

Apr 17, 2012

In this chat with Vicki Kerrigan on ABC Radio Darwin, we chat about workplace design and the need to create functional workplaces – something the ‘open-plan’ model fails utterly at delivering. Click on the link below   Futurist Marcus Barber on ABC Radio Darwin discussing the future of workplace design and the challenges of dysfunctional workplaces…

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