How do you handled ‘the unsettled’ transitions?

At almost every stage in a shift in the way societies and organisations operate, there comes a period of extreme ‘unsettled-ness’. This period may show itself in the form of the doldrums (where things seem unusually calm but nothing seems to be happening) or in busyness (where there’s lots of activity but nothing seems to be happening). In many cases there will be a call for a re-think of direction, of purpose and of activity. So when should you maintain the course, and when should you take a step back?

The answer to both states of being lies in the starting approach you utilised before commiting to your current source of action. For organisations and for societies, if there has been sufficient and deeply considered thinking about what the future might hold (possibilities) and what you want to achieve (preferabilities) then often the answer is to ‘stay the course’.

For leaders, there is often a need to inform the masses. Let them know what is happening, that the doldrums or the wheels spinning is not unexpected, but that a threshold is approaching beyond which, the ‘new normal’ will emerge and embed itself.

But what if you did not undertake the well considered assessment of the preferred future and the likely issues you will face? If you’re in the doldrums, the action is clear – undertake a challenging assessment of what is possible, what is plausible and what is preferrable and use that assessment to guide you actions. However if you have not undertaken that assessment and yet have a very busy organisation or society where lots of action is present but you are ‘getting no where’ then danger is all around you. Understand this – if you are busy but do NOT know where you are going, about the only thing you can guarantee is happening (in your society or organisation) is that valuable resources are being wasted on a directionless business.

And that can only lead to disaster. As Map makers used to mark on uncharted areas: ‘there be dragons!’ If you are leading a society or an organisation that lacks direction it is iuncumbent upon you to discover a direction of value and importance. Without one you’ll wither and die.

As an example, right now it seems to me that the transition from coal to renewables is underway. But the wobbles and worries are all around us. Simply put (and to paraphrase someone else’s thoughts) ‘the old ways are dying but the new ways aren’t fully here yet’. Which sees many calls for ‘go back to what we’ve always done’ offset by ‘the future is this way!’ About the only thing that is clear to me is this:The old ways won’t get us to where we want to go.

But that doesn’t mean the new ways are an easy straightline path. Far from it. In the energy sector, both in charted and uncharted maps, ‘there be dragons’

The Melbourne Cup and a Futurist’s view

Nov 4, 2012

Okay the time has come again where people ask me, as a professional futurist, for my tips for the Melbourne Cup. As always I advise them that my area of expertise does not reside with horse racing so really, I have as much chance as anyone and their own system, of selecting a winner. That…

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Make your own teeth? Should parents have a ‘licence to parent’? and more on ABC Darwin

Oct 31, 2012

ABC Darwin’s Vicki Kerrigan and I chat about the future of dentistry – is it possible to grow you own teeth? Are dentist visits going to become a thing of the past? And in the second of today’s updates, we also chatted about the Future of Parenting – is it time that you needed a…

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Time to combine Life Cycle design & penalties for environmental waste to solve a ballooning problem

Oct 21, 2012

Organisations like CleanUp Australia and Take3.org have (along with many others) taken a leading role at identifying and removing waste that has entered our environment. Their efforts are fantastic yet have one clear problem – they rely on volunteers to clean up the mess of others, after the fact – it’s a ‘playing catch-up’ strategy.…

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Selective Consumption and the Retail sector

Oct 13, 2012

The Retail sector in Australia is slowing coming to grips with the fact that for the past 50 years, they’ve had a captured market and enormous profit margins. and that now, the times have changed. Whilst many point to the internet as a cause of their woes, others are pointing out the apparent high cost…

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Strategic Agility and the Art of Paying Attention

Sep 24, 2012

he many people who’ve been through one of The Australian Strategic Planning Institute’s workshops over the past six years, will know how much emphasis is placed on the need to pay attention to things going on around you. In particular as part of the idea of tracking your progress toward your desired future (your Vision).…

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How to Build an Effective Twitter Group

Sep 18, 2012

As a Futurist I’m often asked what I think about certain social media tools (and most technology for that matter). My answer is always aligned to the thought that ‘if the technology is working for you, and not against you, it’s probably a good thing. Here then are my thoughts about building up a useful…

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The Future of Beer (and alcohol)

Sep 11, 2012

Will alcohol have a legitimate place in societies in the years to come? As we slowly awaken to the horrendous impact of alcohol related harm and it’s social and financial costs, will Australia’s widely held acceptance of alcohol consumption begin to wane? This MP3 of my chat with Vicki Kerrigan on   ABC Darwin drew…

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The Top 3 Questions and Answers for the Future

Aug 28, 2012

Well as I’ve discovered them! These three questions (and my normal answers) are based on what I get asked consistently when I’m presenting or facilitating a session about Strategic Planning, ‘the future of…’, and how societies might look five, ten or twenty years from now: Question One – ‘What is the most important thing to…

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Heading down the drain with the ‘4 Minute Shower’.

Aug 16, 2012

Every now and again what sounds like a really good idea turns out to be less beneficial than what was hoped for.  Strategic Futurist Marcus Barber wonders whether or not the Victorian Government’s ‘4 Minute Shower’ idea is a current example? For those of you that have read my paper ‘A Drop in the Ocean’…

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Mars on Earth – is the red planet an indicator of things to come?

Aug 5, 2012

There’s a lot to like about Mars. For centuries the name given to the Roman God of War (in honour of its blood stained hue) it has given us an opportunity and point of focus to think beyond our own planet. There’s been some vast mythologies about the deep channels (interpreted as canals meant signs…

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