How do you handled ‘the unsettled’ transitions?

At almost every stage in a shift in the way societies and organisations operate, there comes a period of extreme ‘unsettled-ness’. This period may show itself in the form of the doldrums (where things seem unusually calm but nothing seems to be happening) or in busyness (where there’s lots of activity but nothing seems to be happening). In many cases there will be a call for a re-think of direction, of purpose and of activity. So when should you maintain the course, and when should you take a step back?

The answer to both states of being lies in the starting approach you utilised before commiting to your current source of action. For organisations and for societies, if there has been sufficient and deeply considered thinking about what the future might hold (possibilities) and what you want to achieve (preferabilities) then often the answer is to ‘stay the course’.

For leaders, there is often a need to inform the masses. Let them know what is happening, that the doldrums or the wheels spinning is not unexpected, but that a threshold is approaching beyond which, the ‘new normal’ will emerge and embed itself.

But what if you did not undertake the well considered assessment of the preferred future and the likely issues you will face? If you’re in the doldrums, the action is clear – undertake a challenging assessment of what is possible, what is plausible and what is preferrable and use that assessment to guide you actions. However if you have not undertaken that assessment and yet have a very busy organisation or society where lots of action is present but you are ‘getting no where’ then danger is all around you. Understand this – if you are busy but do NOT know where you are going, about the only thing you can guarantee is happening (in your society or organisation) is that valuable resources are being wasted on a directionless business.

And that can only lead to disaster. As Map makers used to mark on uncharted areas: ‘there be dragons!’ If you are leading a society or an organisation that lacks direction it is iuncumbent upon you to discover a direction of value and importance. Without one you’ll wither and die.

As an example, right now it seems to me that the transition from coal to renewables is underway. But the wobbles and worries are all around us. Simply put (and to paraphrase someone else’s thoughts) ‘the old ways are dying but the new ways aren’t fully here yet’. Which sees many calls for ‘go back to what we’ve always done’ offset by ‘the future is this way!’ About the only thing that is clear to me is this:The old ways won’t get us to where we want to go.

But that doesn’t mean the new ways are an easy straightline path. Far from it. In the energy sector, both in charted and uncharted maps, ‘there be dragons’

Ten Trends Shaping Government Today

Jan 24, 2013

Futurist Jack Uldrich has posted an item to his website looking at Ten Trends shaping Government today. Although each item is arguable and may be context specific depending on ‘which’ Government you’re looking at, it’s a good overall take suggesting things to do with data, the interenet, crowdsourcing and the like. However I think Jack…

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Should we really keep Politicians away from Scientists?

Jan 22, 2013

Sir Paul Nurse has ‘weight’ when it comes to science. His position is the head of The Royal Society in the United Kingdom and in an address in Melbourne he suggested that we need to keep politicians away from scientists: “It also emphasises the need to keep the science as far as is possible from…

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2013 will be the International Year of Crowdsourcing

Dec 30, 2012

I’ve been thinking long and hard about what to call 2013. After saying 2011 would need to be the International Year of Resilience (much still needed) and 2012 the International Year of Problem Solving I’m thinking now that Crowdsourcing (the idea of seeking assistance beyond your own capabilities from the ‘crowd’ often through social media)…

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Five Emergent Ideas for 2013 you won’t find on any ‘Trends for 2013’ list (just yet)

Dec 19, 2012

There’s lots of talk about ‘next big things for 2013’ right now, just as there has been in past years. Rather than join the cadre of prognosticators, trend experts and (not so) disguised salespeople laying claim to knowing about what ‘will’ be for the coming 12 months, I offer an alternative approach – here’s five…

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Does the Mayan Calendar recommend opening your Christmas present early?

Dec 16, 2012

Here it comes, the 21st of December 2012 – the last known recorded date on the Mayan Calendar and for years people have wondered why the Mayans never got around to extending beyond 2012. What did the Mayans know that we didn’t and should we be thinking about opening our Christmas presents early this year?…

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Five Degrees Hotter? A quick reality check

Dec 9, 2012

As a Strategic Futurist I love a good scenario like the rest of us in the futures community. And where I choose to diverge from many in my field is in the pragmatic applications of futures and foresight thinking. Scenarios left as ‘what ifs…?’ are at best, theoretical. All of my clients and most of…

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2013 Trends – fair or fantasy?

Dec 4, 2012

Over at The Australian Strategic Planning Institute an observation has been made about the so called Top Ten Trends for 2013 and whether, with deeper consideration, the trends suggested deserve their place as new, or emerging or whether in fact, by relying upon them you might be chasing a ship that has long since sailed.…

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Open, Closed, Free or Fare?

Dec 2, 2012

Creative Commons is an approach that attempts to ensure that information in its various forms, can be shared by others for free. That is my take on it at least. And over time we’ve seen some major organisations shape the idea of ‘free’ to ‘free with conditions’ and ‘free for a fee’. The last one…

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The Energy challenge & rising prices

Nov 21, 2012

Some topics are too big to cover in a few minutes on radio. In this brief snapshot, the ABC Darwin’s Vicki Kerrigan and I chat about energy costs, causes and the future ahead for places like Darwin   You can download the media file here: Marcus Barber Future of Energy

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Cities of the Future: a view from Perth

Nov 19, 2012

What does a City tell you of itself, by how it shows itself? There’s much to be learnt by noting the small yet ‘obvious’ signs of life in any city you visit, that reveal to a certain extent, it’s ‘true self’. I’ll mention a few cities here but will focus on my most recent visit…

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