Five Emergent Ideas for 2013 you won’t find on any ‘Trends for 2013’ list (just yet)

There’s lots of talk about ‘next big things for 2013’ right now, just as there has been in past years. Rather than join the cadre of prognosticators, trend experts and (not so) disguised salespeople laying claim to knowing about what ‘will’ be for the coming 12 months, I offer an alternative approach – here’s five ideas I’d like to see taking root over the next 12 months: The Fallible Leader; Enough-ness; The Slow Retirement; The Slow Engagement; and Human Capability Departments

 

Enough-ness: This idea emerged out of some research over the past few years looking at shifting consumer attitudes. Enough-ness is not altruistic where people give up what they have so that others might have; nor is it philanthropic where people pour largesse onto some pet projects or agreeable ideas; and nor is it ‘saticficing’ where in people begrudgingly accept ‘their lot’.

Instead Enough-ness is a realisation by an individual that they have all they need and that there is no value in adding on to or trying to improve what they have. In that light, Enough-ness bodes the end of the consume at all costs mantra upon which many economies are built and with it the rise of the ‘of Value’ decision criteria.

The Fallible Leader: I’m really tired of the Leadership tomes that suggest the best form of Leadership requires the Dynamic, the Powerful, the Charismatic, the Bold, the Hard skills, the Soft skills, the Adaptable, the Connected the Decisive etc capabilities. Instead I’d like to see the emergence of leaders of organisations openly admitting ‘I don’t know the answer’. And from that open (and honest framing) emerges a Leader with the potential and desire to LEARN and seek alternatives paths forward.

The Fallible Leader is not all knowing, closed to alternative views or paths forward. The Fallible Leader understands their limitations and creates the means to seek assistance and support, embracing the uncertainty such a mindset requires.

The Slow Retirement: The time is absolutely right for this idea. I first floated the concept past the Manufacturing sector in 2005 as a way to maintain their ageing and highly knowledgeable older workers. In that session (and many since) I said that the Boomer Retirement flood was a myth. And right now the Slow Retirement idea will suit almost any workplace who needs the skills and experience of an older worker. It will suit the older worker too, many of whom have been hit by cost of living pressures and need to stay in the workplace.

Simply put, the workplace offers their older workers a way to stay in the workplace with ever decreasing and flexible hours over an extended time frame. This allows the older worker to ease into retirement as sits their needs and allows the business to tap into that skill for far longer.

The Slow Engagement: Also mentioned to the Manufacturing sector in 2005 in the same session, in this instance targeting the younger cohort. Rather than offer full time employment to new or younger workers, consider instead hiring a new worker in bites of time, allowing both the organisation and the individual to test each other out and build a conducive workplace relationship. As the relationship builds, so too would the hours until a full time position is secured. This model is very different from the ‘permanent part-time’ roles now commonly used

Human Capability Departments: I have a personal issue with the terms Human Resources. When you think about what ‘resources’ are you come up with oil, gas, uranium, coal – things you stick in one end of a furnace to turn into ash at the other. The term Human Resources by default sees people as a cost centre and also as a waste stream – a fundamentally flawed approach and idea whose time has long since passed.

But ‘Capability’ is a much richer and forward driven term. A Human Capability Department for instance, would focus on maximising the way in which an individual’s Capabilities are leveraged to meet the needs of the organisation and the individual.

There you have it – Five Emergent Ideas for 2013. You won’t see them in the usual places discussing management, trends and so on and that’s just the point.

Futurist Marcus Barber discusses the Future of Sex (Part Two) on ABC Darwin with Vicki Kerrigan

Nov 10, 2011

The MP3 file below captures part two of our chat looking at the Future of Sex. Picking up on the theme of new technology that popped up towards the end of our first discussion in week one, here we move onto haptics and holographics and the extension of that technology from beyond the bedroom and…

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History as Future – TV Show Who’s Been Sleeping in My House?

Nov 8, 2011

Who’s Been Sleeping In My House? is a new Australian series presented by archaeologist Adam Ford that looks at the stories behind some of our old homes. Adam is the man behind the recent ‘Ned Kelly’ dig among other great archaeology finds here in Australia and the UK. As a futurist I’m always interested in…

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Professional Futurists running their Follow The Sun Futures Program

Oct 25, 2011

The Association of Professional Futures is holding its first Virtual Gathering, following the sun from Europe, across North America and finishing in the Australia pacific zone. It kicks off tomorrow and links to the program and registration (it’s only $45 for guests for a program featuring some of the worlds most prominent futurists)   You…

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Marcus Barber on ABC Darwin – the Future of Sex Part 2

Oct 24, 2011

I join Vicki Kerrigan on ABC Darwin radio where we continue our discussion about the future of sex. We consider three main areas in this session – smart phone applications; remote relationships and the combination of haptics and holographics as one the emerging means by which we’ll maintain physical contact.   You can download the…

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The Future of Sex Part One

Oct 17, 2011

In this chat with Vicki Kerrigan on radio ABC Darwin we discuss the future of sex. This is the first of potentially three conversations where we look at the increasing reach of technology way beyond current online match making sites, the social pressures driving the use of technology as well as the use of technology…

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Soft House Prices or Unrealistic Vendors?

Oct 16, 2011

There’s been a bit of discussion in recent months about a softening housing market around Australia but I wonder how much of it is more indicative of unrealistic expectations on behalf of sellers? In futures work we think in terms of Assumptions and Expectations and aim to test our understanding and so I offer this…

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We’ve Been hit by an email Virus and apologise to everyone impacted

Oct 12, 2011

Unfortunately it looks like my main email address has been hijacked and has been used to send out a series of spam emails. I’d like to apologise to anyone who has received some junk email purporting to come from ‘desiredfutures’ with a series of html links asking you to go and have a look. You…

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The Future of Plastic Bottles

Oct 10, 2011

Given the amount of plastic swimming in our oceans and rivers and the volume littering our land, the NT Government is aiming to introduce compulsory returns legislation on soft-drink bottles (as happens in South Australia), something that has apparently raised the ire of bottler, Coca Cola. Although they’ve recently backed away from their initial statement…

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Is Alcohol or Cannabis more Harmful?

Oct 7, 2011

Deciphering the hype from reality with regard to drug use can be a challenge for most of us. Professor David Nutt in the UK has given me permission to post a link to the paper he has co-authored with Ruth Weissenborn that looks at the reality of a comparison of harm caused by two common…

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The Future of Clothing Part Two

Oct 4, 2011

Vicki Kerrigan and I finished off our discussion about the Future of Clothing on ABC Darwin yesterday. We discussed invisibility style cloaks, singlets that monitor your heart rate and stress levels, runners that capture electricity to power your wearable electronics and a few philosophical questions regarding our ability to deal with stress.   The file…

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