Copenhagen Consensus is likely – just not the type we want.

I’m tipping that Consensus will be reached at Copenhagen this week. Alas it will be a consensus for more talking, thinking and commitments to agree to a proposal to set a time for a discussion around more concrete targets. In otherwords, a commitment to not commit. The politicians waver whilst our planet is being poisoned. Copenhagen will stall because the framing of the issues does not allow success to be created. What is missing are a couple of ideas to balance the ledger and here’s what they are:

1) The Oxygen Credits System.

This is an idea I first presented at a UNESCO conference in Austria in early 2005. During my presentation I indicated that the Carbon Credits systems were just a permission slip for (mainly 1st world) countries to keep polluting. At the same time, developed nations want to improve their societies yet most of them need to rely on natural assets like minerals and timber to do so. The Oxygen Credits System is a counter balance to the polluting credits system and it would work by developed nations paying developing nations NOT to cut down their forests. The well to do countries would pay the developing countries to continue to be the lungs of the planet, which allows the developing nations a chance to earn an income to help improve their societies, whilst the earth retains some fresh air producing capacity.

2) The Sustainability Import tax

Initially I suggested this in a paper I wrote on the subject of water in 2003 (available on this website for free – see ‘A Drop in the Ocean…’. Back then it was titled the ‘Non Kyoto Signatory Import tax’ and called for a 20% tax on imports of goods from countries who were non Kyoto signatories. The French picked up that idea and ran with – the then Australian Goverment attacked it. What the Sustainability Imports tax would do is allow countries who commit and action carbon reduction targets, to place a trade impost on goods from countries who are not taking serious action at reducing carbon emissions. In otherwords, countries that claim it’s ‘too expensive to take action’, would see their manufacturing and service industries hit with a tax at such a level that it would make better economic sense for their Governments to take serious action.

This idea would also see the emergence of a trading block among the countries who commit to carbon reduction targets. They’d form a Sustainability Trade Cartel, whilst closing off their markets or imposing high costs on those who are trying to get away with doing nothing.

I have strong hopes for Copenhagen consensus of the type we need. The history of our species suggests that is very unlikely. We respond well to disasters after they have happened – we tend not to stave off the disaster before it strikes. A global population of around 5 Billion (and all of the pain that would be required for that outcome to occur) would seem to be the kind of disaster that might jump us out of our lethargy. We are a smart species but we are yet to become ‘wise’ and for that ignorance (or arrogance), many will suffer untold (and uneccessary) lives of misery.

For a Futurist, 50 Years isn’t so long ago

Aug 17, 2011

A quick note for the history buffs among us – in this month of August fifty years ago, the first components of the Berlin Wall were constructed with rings of barbed wire severing Berlin into visually distinct west and east Berlin. Russia’s main challenge at that time was the 10,000 or so East Germans each…

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The Flaws in Demand & Supply thinking

Aug 7, 2011

Let me start by saying that my Masters of Science qualification is NOT held in economics and with that said I’m holding an interested person’s perspective toward wanting to know ‘why’ and ‘how’. I have some questions and thoughts about the theory of Supply and Demand and would be happy to have some feedback from…

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Cultured Meat’s potential for energy and water reductions

Jul 18, 2011

Below you’ll find this afternoon’s discussion with ABC Darwin radio in which host Vicki Kerrigan chats with futurist Marcus Barber about the emerging research into lab grown meat as a potential addition to or replacement of, existing livestock farming methods.   The program streamed live on 105.7 ABC Darwin this afternoon, discussing the University of…

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Speaking of the Future at the World Futures Conference

Jul 11, 2011

Continuing the futures discussions on ABC Darwin Radio, this time with Paul Dale who is filling in for Vicki Kerrigan whilst Vicki is handling the breakfast time slot, we discuss some of the conference sessions at the World Futures Conference here in Vancouver   You can listen to the audio stream here and cue this…

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Getting Your Future Right

Jul 8, 2011

My slides from today’s presentation on ‘Getting You Future Right’ can be found at the link below   To those at the session, my apologies for the technical challenges and hope these slides can provide more context for you – contact me if you have any questions.  Access the Slides Here

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The Future of You Part 2

Jun 27, 2011

Here’s the upload of my conversation with Vicki Kerrigan at ABC Radio Darwin. In it I offer the first three of ten steps designed to help you get your future right. In last week’s session I left Vicki with a question to ponder: Is my life headed where I want it to go, and if…

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The future of… You

Jun 12, 2011

Futurist Marcus Barber will be joining ABC’s Vicki Kerrigan in Darwin for the first of an ongoing discussion about the future this Wednesday. Each week on Wednesday afternoon’s, Vicki and Marcus will discuss the future of something, how we prepare for the future, what the future looks like for some industries and other related futures…

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Innovation in Manufacturing – there really IS a Future! But action needs to happen NOW!

May 25, 2011

The panel session at the National Manufacturing Week 2011 went well though with four of us on the panel, time was quite compressed. Some really good thoughts from Phillip Chindamo from AIG, Damon Cantwell from Deloitte and Erol Harvey from Minifab, delightfully chaired by Sandra George from SEBN at the City of Greater Dandenong. Rather…

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Building on Innovation for a vibrant and sustainable future – a focus for future manufacturing

May 23, 2011

On Thursday I’ll be part of the panel that wraps up the National Manufacturing Week 2011 in Melbourne at the Melbourne Convention & Exhibition Centre under the theme of Meeting the challenges of the next generation of manufacturing with a focus on Innovation and Sustainability. It should be an interesting chat as we consider what…

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What Australia Can learn from Finland’s Education System

May 1, 2011

There’s lots to like about borrowing ideas from other areas especially where those ideas can lead to a significant positive shift. In the link below, Zaid Ali Alsagoff an educational blogging specialist highlights why the Finnish Education system stands as a potential model to embrace. And whilst there are examples of this type of thinking…

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