A Fork in the Road for the National Party
Life is full of interesting and not so interesting choices. Some seemingly mundane or innocuous choices turn out to be life makers (and breakers). Occasionally the noisy intensive choices turn out to be little more than a passing zephyr carrying dust. The National Party in Australia have just been presented with a ‘Fork in The Road’ moment. Tony Windsor’s decision to run in the Seat of New England against the incumbent National Leader Barnaby Joyce. The ‘Fork’ looks like this:
Should the National Party
a) Invest significant party resources trying save the Deputy Prime Minister from losing his seat? or
b) Provide the resources across all party members to maximise their chances of winning their own seats?
The Nationals will be unable to do both. Tony Windsor, the previous member for the seat retired due to health issues, which have from all accounts, now been put on a stable platform. To say he was popular in the seat is reasonable given that his first preference votes across the previous Federal Elections in 2004, 2007 and 2010 were +57%; +61% and +61%. Which means Tony Windsor has pulling power within his home electorate. He also has pulling power outside the electorate.
And here’s why the Fork in the Road is such a sharp one. It is likely that Tony Windsor will garner significant funding and campaign support from way beyond his electorate. His social media and local support will be high. If the National Party believe that a standard local campaign will be enough to get the Deputy PM over the line against Tony Windsor, they’d be deluding themselves. They know it. BUT, if they choose to focus on a ‘Save the Barnaby’ approach they will need to divert already stretched resources from OTHER electorate campaigns. In other words, run the risk of under-campaigning in a number of National held seats to save one seat.
I’d suggest it will be a pretty nervous time in the National Party right now. There will be a list of seats which the National Party will target for ‘minimal support’. To do so risks raising the ire of a strong and proud Agricultural sector support base who may just go with a protest vote on a seat by seat basis if the locals get a clue that they’re being taken for granted. I’d doubt any protest vote would be big enough to unseat too many National MP’s, but it may well be big enough to continue to undermine the funding support given to the Natonal Party through the electoral laws that pay per vote received above the 3% level.
The National’s Fork in the Road has them weighing up trying to save their Deputy PM or supporting the rest of their elected members. A continued dwindling of votes sees their funding base for the future eroded further and could well see them fall further, quicker. Do they sacrifice the Deputy PM to save their future? Fork in the Road
In rental and lease markets it’s fair to say that for the best part of three decades, the landlords have been the price setters. The rules around negative gearing in domestic supply enable sizeable portfolios. Demand in office spaces in central suburbs has been consistently tight. And now, finally, CFO’s have become aware of the…
Read More >With Australia having just about wrestled Covid19 to the ground (NSW remains a bit of an issue) there’s now surging demand for PPE in the USA. The Covid19 virus is tracking toward an exponential increase and PPE Manufacturers should start looking for supply opportunities Sadly in the USA over the past week, they are adding…
Read More >The Mechanical, Psychological, and Biological Interventions of a Pandemic With Johnson and Johnson also pausing it’s #Covid19 #vaccine trial, it is becoming clearer to more of the public, that the long steady path to a vaccine is not something that can be rushed for anyone’s political agenda or preferred view of the world. We’re learning…
Read More >It seems that one way or another, Victoria is going to pop out of #Lockdown. Probably not in the way we would have hoped. And so for everyone pushing for #AfterLockdown in Victoria and for the wider society, there are two questions you must confront: One – ‘What do you feel is an acceptable level…
Read More >No, it’s not easy. Most of the challenges come down to our expectations – are they valid based on the assumptions you have made about your future? Those assumptions are based on the information you have available to you. We gather information, make an assessment of meaning, which leads us to make assumptions for an…
Read More >A thought on the ‘Why should I be in lock-down in my suburb, it’s not fair that we have to do it and no one else has to, my hair’s a mess I need to sell coffees and pizza’ crowd – an explanation you might appreciate You’ve been asked to go back into lock-down…
Read More >Visions are forward looking statement, but good ones, REALLY good ones have key elements 1. They are things you want but do NOT have 2. Are as long or as short as they need to be 3. Are by the people they are for 4. Are for the people they are by 5.Offer stability in…
Read More >If there’s one thing that the #CaronaVirus has shown us loud and clear it is that we are reliant on the people AT THE CONTACT FACE to carry us through. For Individuals, it is those in Healthcare we rely on. For Populations, it is those in food creation and delivery and sanitation we rely on.…
Read More >Most Councils and Government community assets are in full lock-down. Now more than ever, Local Councils Must Pivot their focus on what their Communities Can and Will do instead. Basketball stadiums? Closed Swimming Pools? Closed Theaters? Closed Libraries? Closed Community Halls? Closed Around the country these critical social assets are in shut down. And with…
Read More >Travel Insurance Providers may face claims for cancellations for travel plans yet taken. But the HUGE risk is covering costs for people ALREADY overseas. That’s way more costly For people with travel insurance taken out prior to the #CaronaVirus being made a declared event, getting your money back will be relatively straight forward. In…
Read More >