A Fork in the Road for the National Party
Life is full of interesting and not so interesting choices. Some seemingly mundane or innocuous choices turn out to be life makers (and breakers). Occasionally the noisy intensive choices turn out to be little more than a passing zephyr carrying dust. The National Party in Australia have just been presented with a ‘Fork in The Road’ moment. Tony Windsor’s decision to run in the Seat of New England against the incumbent National Leader Barnaby Joyce. The ‘Fork’ looks like this:
Should the National Party
a) Invest significant party resources trying save the Deputy Prime Minister from losing his seat? or
b) Provide the resources across all party members to maximise their chances of winning their own seats?
The Nationals will be unable to do both. Tony Windsor, the previous member for the seat retired due to health issues, which have from all accounts, now been put on a stable platform. To say he was popular in the seat is reasonable given that his first preference votes across the previous Federal Elections in 2004, 2007 and 2010 were +57%; +61% and +61%. Which means Tony Windsor has pulling power within his home electorate. He also has pulling power outside the electorate.
And here’s why the Fork in the Road is such a sharp one. It is likely that Tony Windsor will garner significant funding and campaign support from way beyond his electorate. His social media and local support will be high. If the National Party believe that a standard local campaign will be enough to get the Deputy PM over the line against Tony Windsor, they’d be deluding themselves. They know it. BUT, if they choose to focus on a ‘Save the Barnaby’ approach they will need to divert already stretched resources from OTHER electorate campaigns. In other words, run the risk of under-campaigning in a number of National held seats to save one seat.
I’d suggest it will be a pretty nervous time in the National Party right now. There will be a list of seats which the National Party will target for ‘minimal support’. To do so risks raising the ire of a strong and proud Agricultural sector support base who may just go with a protest vote on a seat by seat basis if the locals get a clue that they’re being taken for granted. I’d doubt any protest vote would be big enough to unseat too many National MP’s, but it may well be big enough to continue to undermine the funding support given to the Natonal Party through the electoral laws that pay per vote received above the 3% level.
The National’s Fork in the Road has them weighing up trying to save their Deputy PM or supporting the rest of their elected members. A continued dwindling of votes sees their funding base for the future eroded further and could well see them fall further, quicker. Do they sacrifice the Deputy PM to save their future? Fork in the Road
It is a tad unfortunate that in the past couple of weeks I’ve had to experience the way in which one of the players in the car insurance industry treats its customers. I haven’t lost a single demerit point since well into last century and consider myself a pretty safe driver. So a couple of…
Read More >Marcus Barber has teamed up with Marketing expert Tod O’Reilly to write ‘Recession Proof Marketing – how to survive and thrive in a recession’. The book is due for completion by the end of March, 2009 and pre orders are now being taken for advance copies Tod was the account manager for both the David…
Read More >At the Long Now group run by Stewart Brand, they have regular guest speakers on a whole range of topics. Recently they had Russian Dmitry Orlov who discussed what happened in Russia during the economic crisis in the early 1990’s and what people around the world might need to do to prepare for the current…
Read More >This is Part one with Part two (looking at who will probably better off at this time next year) to come shortly. If you are in a position to sharpen your thinking, catch a breath or use some time to improve your understanding of the ways in which we create our societies, then I have…
Read More >What’s emerging for 2009? What might shape the near term future, what can we do about it and what are some of the indicators suggesting change or otherwise? Strategic Futurist Marcus Barber joined Raphael Epstein and co-host Denise Scott, as part of the panel to answer the questions on the 774 ABC’s conversation hour today……
Read More >Yes you read right – thinking ahead I’m anticipating an amazing 2008. Happy new year to all for when it happens (depending on the calendar you subscribe to) and I look forward to some fun, challenges, stresses and enjoyment for the year ahead. Marcus Barber 🙂 PS – Hope 2007 was a good one
Read More >The Advanced one day Strategic Planning Workshop in Sydney on the 11th of December at Rydges World Square is now fully booked For inquiries about the next series of dates for the 2009 series, keep an eye out on The Australian Strategic Planning Institute website at www.taspi.com.au or contact us via email here
Read More >Every now and again what sounds like a really good idea turns out to be less beneficial than what was hoped for. There’s lots of talk right now about technology solutions and ways in which societies can change the way they use water – there’s conferences and ‘talkfests’ a plenty featuring many of the industry…
Read More >The second annual fund raiser was held in late October and attended by almost 300 people. Marcus Barber offers a brief update: The Blackwood 8 commitee put together a great fund raiser on behalf of the Ludwig Institute for Cancer Research in Melbourne. With a delightful crowd warm up by Greg Champion of the ‘Coodabeen…
Read More >The slides used as part of Marcus Barber’s key note address to the Regional Produce Summit are now available via the link below Held at the Wangaratta Gateway Motel (and the first conference event staged in its very impressively redsigned function room) the conference brought together a range of speakers to discuss culinary tourism,…
Read More >