2014 – The International Year of Food Security

Continuing his run of suggesting an annual theme and idea of world focus for the year ahead, Futurist Marcus Barber has declared 2014 to be the International Year of Food Security. ‘The year ahead is going to bring into sharp focus, what has often been seen as an ‘other-world’ problem’ Barber says. ‘For a number of decades, lack of food and lack of access to food has resided in the domains of the developing world. With the confluence of climate impacts, land becoming unfit for food production, water stress, and costs, for perhaps the first time in living memory, these issues will be present in developed countries too’

 

Food security covers a much wider challenge than just access to food and this report on climate change, water and food security must be considered seriously.

Food Security also includes food quality and brings into awareness the difference between food, and food products – those high fat, high sugar manufactured goods that are food substitutes rather than natural foods. If costs of natural food goods are beyond the reach of everyday people, then this has a major impact on poor people who have few choices about dietary control. The downstream impact is shifted to costs associated with health and medical services. A short cut early on is often linked to downstream costs of much greater magnitude especially related to diabetes and obesity.

This position has been heightened by accident recently when McDonalds used its internal website to advise it’s own staff to avoid fast foods due to health concerns. This link ‘McDonald’s to staff: Avoid Burgers and Fries‘ explains the challenge.

For many years, food security has been linked to over-population. To an extent this is generally accepted as accurate but when you consider that spoilage rates of food in transport is said to be up to 40%, then we can understand that an awful lot of food is produced that never makes it to the end consumer. The energy and resources lost in that model of production have been offset by the ability for countries to over produce the amount of food needed. But with the collapse in water sources and the poisoning of farmlands (see this article on China’s polluted soils), such a position is no longer valid. Increasingly food desitined for overseas markets in the form of food aid, will need to be redirected to internal needs in developed countries.

As countries grapple with energy issues, there is additional emerging issue that I refer to as the ‘Eat or Extract’ dilemma. Simply put, with the frenzy of searching for new energy sources through untested technologies like fracking, societies are now faced with choosing between extraction of gas for energy needs, or maintenance of farmlands (a common target for fracking wells) for food production. Questions on fracking exist but one thing is very clear – the amount of fresh water used is extensive and that water is mixed with chemicals that are unfit for human consumption. Eat or Extract.

In Australia there has been a marked increase in people accessing Material Aid agencies seeking food assistance. This problem is often tied into housing issues, but in recent times, the challenge is extending to people that might be considered ‘suitably’ housed, flagged in this report on Homlessness.

There have been steps to address the issue with the rise in Farmers Markets, local food growers groups, food recovery agencies like the Foodshare Food Bank and Fareshare help minimise food wastage. Community gardens are increasing but are not guarantees especially as this example of New York City allowing a 40 year old community market garden to be bulldozed for a commercial development shows.

So this year with climate expected to damage crops, water stress increasing, Eat or Extract issues abound and food wastage still a huge source of loss, both developed and developing nations face a challenge for the issue of food access and production. For 2014 to be an area of focus then, we need it to be The International Year of Food Security

The Future of Sex Part One

Oct 17, 2011

In this chat with Vicki Kerrigan on radio ABC Darwin we discuss the future of sex. This is the first of potentially three conversations where we look at the increasing reach of technology way beyond current online match making sites, the social pressures driving the use of technology as well as the use of technology…

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Soft House Prices or Unrealistic Vendors?

Oct 16, 2011

There’s been a bit of discussion in recent months about a softening housing market around Australia but I wonder how much of it is more indicative of unrealistic expectations on behalf of sellers? In futures work we think in terms of Assumptions and Expectations and aim to test our understanding and so I offer this…

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We’ve Been hit by an email Virus and apologise to everyone impacted

Oct 12, 2011

Unfortunately it looks like my main email address has been hijacked and has been used to send out a series of spam emails. I’d like to apologise to anyone who has received some junk email purporting to come from ‘desiredfutures’ with a series of html links asking you to go and have a look. You…

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The Future of Plastic Bottles

Oct 10, 2011

Given the amount of plastic swimming in our oceans and rivers and the volume littering our land, the NT Government is aiming to introduce compulsory returns legislation on soft-drink bottles (as happens in South Australia), something that has apparently raised the ire of bottler, Coca Cola. Although they’ve recently backed away from their initial statement…

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Is Alcohol or Cannabis more Harmful?

Oct 7, 2011

Deciphering the hype from reality with regard to drug use can be a challenge for most of us. Professor David Nutt in the UK has given me permission to post a link to the paper he has co-authored with Ruth Weissenborn that looks at the reality of a comparison of harm caused by two common…

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The Future of Clothing Part Two

Oct 4, 2011

Vicki Kerrigan and I finished off our discussion about the Future of Clothing on ABC Darwin yesterday. We discussed invisibility style cloaks, singlets that monitor your heart rate and stress levels, runners that capture electricity to power your wearable electronics and a few philosophical questions regarding our ability to deal with stress.   The file…

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The coming age of Robotics in In-Home Healthcare

Sep 12, 2011

I’ll be talking with Vicki Kerrigan again this afternoon, this time discussing robotics as in-home carers. I’m due on at about 4.45pm Darwin time which is around 5.15pm on the eastern seaboard. You can listen to the audio stream via the link below   http://www.abc.net.au/darwin/programs/webcam_radio.htm?ref=listenlive  If all things go well, I’ll record the session and…

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Australia 2030 – a view from Siemens

Aug 30, 2011

I recently attended a session with South East Business Networks where the CEO of Siemens Australasia provided some great ideas as to where Australian Manufacturing was headed and could go, and indeed perhaps needed to go. What I found most useful from Allan Goller’s perspective was the encouragement for businesses to just get on with…

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The Future of clothing

Aug 26, 2011

In this very brief chat with Vicki Kerrigan on ABC Darwin, we kick off the discussion of the future of clothing – not the ‘style’ elements but the functional elements like capturing perspiration to convert for water. You can listen to the audio via the   link available here – cue it up about a…

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Futurist Marcus Barber on Scenarios for Water Industry at World Water Week

Aug 19, 2011

Marcus Barber will present the case study of his work with Central Highlands Water and their use of Scenarios for Strategy setting at World Water Week in Stockholm this Thursday. You can follow the twitter feed via #watermanagement, #rightfuture or #wwweek This case study looks at the flaws in a reliance on forecasting as the…

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