Strategic Futurists; Value Systems Specialists

Events

Is Manufacturing Output Data a Reliable Indicator of Economic Activity

Monday 25 March 2019

In short - 'No'. In days of yore manufacturing data meant jobs being done, employed people being paid, sales being made. But with robotics and off-shoring in many parts of Australian manufacturing, it's no longer the value indicator it once was.

In the US it is an even less reliable indicator because in the last 10 years, even as manufacturing in the US rebounded, the number of jobs did not. In fact, job numbers have declined further as automation has increased substantially. So a down turn in manufacturing data means a poorer result for few people. 

This article in The New Daily looks at the reasons why the stock market dropped off the back of, among one thing, flat manufacturing output in the US. But really, should we care - most US manufacturing is headed towards less employees. In short, it's no longer a value indicator that it once was as a down turn really means less robots at work. In Australia our manufacturing sector continues to bounce along, employing plenty and slowly adding select robotics and automation to fill skill gaps shortages rather than displacing workers (the US approach). And there's plenty of manufacturers in Australia across a broad array of sectors doing just nicely thankyou. So interpretation of data needs more than a cursory glance


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Events

Beyond VUCA - the VUCA Squared concept
Wednesday 10 July 2019
Most people who've been involved in planning and strategy development will have heard of VUCA - Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous. Emerging out of the US War College in 1987, it's come to be more widely used by consultancies aiming to at least 'sound smart'. But that's not the main problem with its usage
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Is Manufacturing Output Data a Reliable Indicator of Economic Activity
Monday 25 March 2019
In short - 'No'. In days of yore manufacturing data meant jobs being done, employed people being paid, sales being made. But with robotics and off-shoring in many parts of Australian manufacturing, it's no longer the value indicator it once was.
Read more...
The Drive to Make Futures Thinking Pragmatic
Thursday 14 March 2019
I've writen a fair bit over the years about the need to move futures thinking out of a theoretical approach and into a more applied model.
Read more...